Historical performance indicates Bitcoin has tended to rise about 20% within four weeks after sharp WTI oil price jumps of at least 15%. With WTI recently soaring to $101 per barrel and Bitcoin fluctuating around $66,000–$68,647 since Feb. 28, a move toward roughly $79,200 by the end of March remains possible if past patterns and risk sentiment hold. However, the sample covers only four major oil shocks since 2020, and Bitcoin's strong 81% correlation with the Nasdaq 100 suggests tech sector dynamics and the war-related macro backdrop could be just as decisive.

Ether fell 6% after briefly reaching $2,200, moving in step with declining US equities and broader risk-off sentiment as conflict in Iran extended and oil prices climbed. Derivatives data show a subdued futures premium and a 7% options skew, while weekly Ethereum DEX volumes slid to $12.6 billion and DApp revenues dropped to $14.1 million, even as the ecosystem still commands about 65% of total value locked including layer-2s.

Bitcoin recently climbed to a four-week high after rebounding 22% from a local bottom near $60,000, but derivatives pricing and on-chain data show traders still prefer downside protection. About 43% of the circulating supply is at a loss and major corporate holders face an average cost basis around $76,000, creating psychological and structural resistance below the prior $78,700 monthly close. Weak miner profitability and growing AI-related energy competition are adding further selling pressure that could slow any move higher.

Bitcoin maintained support near $68,000 on Tuesday while the US Dollar Index climbed from 96.6 to 99.4 over the past three weeks and gold slid 3.6%. At the same time, Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 fell from 92% to 69%, and ETFs recorded $1.5 billion of net inflows since Feb. 24, highlighting resilient institutional demand despite a broader bear market.

Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen to $32 billion, the lowest level since August 2024, even as BTC’s price recently bounced from $63,000. At the same time, options data shows a put-to-call premium near 0.7 and $7.5 billion in CME futures open interest, indicating that institutions still participate but with reduced bullish leverage. Onchain holdings by public companies and daily spot ETF volumes above $3 billion further suggest that institutional exposure has not disappeared.

Ether has fallen 36% in 2026 and retreated toward $1,900, even as Ethereum's core development targets base-layer scalability, privacy, and quantum resilience. Despite weak price action, Ethereum and its layer-2 networks retain 65% of total value locked and dominate RWA activity, while major financial institutions continue launching onchain initiatives.

On Friday, Bitcoin fell below $65,500 as U.S. wholesale inflation and equity jitters intensified. Analysts cut U.S. stocks to neutral on overvaluation, a weaker dollar and policy risks, while the 10-year yield slid to 3.97% from 4.21% over three weeks, sparking rotation talk toward BTC.

Bitcoin retested $70,000 on Wednesday after Tuesday's dip to $62,500, but derivatives gauges stayed cautious into Thursday. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $764 million of net inflows across two sessions, while the 2-month futures basis held near 2% and the 30-day options skew showed puts priced at a 14% premium to calls.

Bitcoin traders are preparing for Friday's $10.5 billion monthly options expiry, with current data showing put options holding the upper hand while BTC trades around $68,800. Deribit leads the market with the bulk of open interest, and scenarios modeled around price ranges between $65,000 and $74,000 all currently favor sellers unless Bitcoin can stage a 9% move back above $75,000. A strong 90% correlation with the Nasdaq 100 suggests that tech sector sentiment and major earnings, including Nvidia, may heavily influence the expiry outcome.