Bitcoin has been sliding as traders position ahead of the Bank of Japan's widely expected 25 basis point rate hike scheduled for 19 December. In previous BoJ tightening moves in March, July 2024 and January 2025, BTC corrected between about 23% and 31%, and current on-chain metrics suggest investors are already de-risking and unwinding leverage before the announcement. The next major driver could be how the yen reacts after the meeting rather than the rate decision itself, potentially setting up either extended pressure or a short-term relief move.

U.S. banking trade groups challenged the OCC's approval of national trust charters for crypto firms, while regulators and institutions advanced integration. Itaú Unibanco has recently advised clients to allocate up to 3% to Bitcoin, and TRM Labs reported that more than 38% of Venezuelan crypto traffic used a single P2P venue as stablecoins filled banking gaps.

At a media event in Mumbai, RBI Deputy Governor T. Rabi Sankar criticized Bitcoin and stablecoins, arguing they lack intrinsic value and pose risks to monetary stability. At the same time, Bitcoin’s major rallies and drawdowns appear to closely mirror shifts in RBI liquidity, with expansions aligning with price gains and tightening coinciding with weakness.

The Bitcoin rally is showing strain as long-held coins return to circulation and inter-exchange liquidity fades. Price remains near cycle highs, but momentum and volume signals point to a likely consolidation phase in the near term. Without a pickup in cross-venue flows, sustaining further upside could be difficult.

USDT recorded $156 billion in transactions under $1,000, highlighting rising high-frequency usage alongside a seven-day moving average above $500 million. Tether is exploring a stock sale that could value the company near $500 billion, while pursuing a binding bid for Juventus, investing in AI robotics and compute, and, in Q3 2025, holding 116 tonnes of gold.

From 2024 through mid‑2025, investors are combining regulated Bitcoin ETFs with self‑custody. Multiple months saw $4B–$6B in spot ETF inflows, with net assets nearing $140B by July 2025, according to SoSoValue. AMBCrypto reported 171 negative days in 2025 and over 1 million BTC held by corporate treasuries.

Bitcoin is heading into the next Federal Reserve decision with thin liquidity and fragile leverage, as CME FedWatch data show an 87.2% probability of a rate cut to 3.50%-3.75%. CryptoQuant reports that exchange reserves have fallen from about 2.95M BTC to roughly 2.76M BTC, suggesting softer spot demand. Alphractal highlights that global liquidity remains stuck between $28 trillion and $30 trillion and points to a strong correlation between India and Bitcoin, while miner signals have turned bearish.

Ethereum processed nearly $6 trillion in stablecoin transfers during Q4 2025, with daily volumes exceeding $85 billion. The network's stablecoin supply climbed above $180 billion as median transaction fees fell to near-zero levels. Capital velocity reached record highs, driven by reduced costs and increased liquidity in decentralized finance applications.

Bitcoin has recorded 171 negative days in 2025, surpassing its long-term average of 170 days. Public companies now hold 1,059,453 BTC, with MicroStrategy controlling 650,000 BTC. The Fear and Greed Index has remained at 21 for five consecutive weeks, while 30-day volatility has reached 0.024.