Bitcoin has fallen over 35% from its roughly $126,200 peak two months ago, and multiple indicators signal waning sell pressure. VanEck analysts cite a 4% hashrate decline into Dec. 15, while Miad Kasravi's NFCI timing has often preceded rallies by 4–6 weeks; momentum gauges have turned up from oversold.

Macro-focused traders warn that Bitcoin could extend its correction toward the $70,000 area if the Bank of Japan delivers a benchmark rate hike on Dec. 19. Past BoJ tightening cycles in 2024 and early 2025 coincided with 20–30% BTC drawdowns, while a current bear flag pattern on the daily chart also targets the $70,000–$72,500 zone. Analysts highlight Japan's impact on global liquidity and the unwinding of yen carry trades as key downside risks for the crypto market.