The White House is weighing the use of the Defense Production Act to boost U.S. refining capacity as domestic refineries run at 98% utilization and diesel tops $6 per gallon for the first time. Refinery utilization stayed above 95% for three straight months through late August, the longest stretch since 2000. The market has tightened after about 7 million bpd of capacity went offline in Asia and the Middle East and another 1.4 million bpd became unavailable in Russia, according to Phillips 66. U.S. diesel inventories are now 13% below their fiveyear average.

Energy Aspects founder and market intelligence director Amrita Sen said the oil market has reached an “inflection point,” with the price trend pointing higher as global inventories are being drawn down faster and China’s crude buying has rebounded. She estimated China will import about 10 million barrels per day of crude in September, roughly 3 million bpd more than in June when imports fell below 7 million bpd to a decade low. Sen also said global inventories fell by 120 million barrels over the past two weeks, helping lift oil above $100 a barrel for the first time since July, according to Bloomberg.

OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2027 to 2.36 million barrels per day, up from an expected increase of 380,000 bpd this year—more than a sixfold jump. The group now sees total global consumption reaching 108.19 million bpd in 2027. China’s demand is expected to be nearly flat this year, but OPEC projects an increase of 380,000 bpd in 2027 to 17.28 million bpd. India is forecast to add 400,000 bpd next year to 6.11 million bpd, while non-OECD countries together account for about 1.6 million bpd of the increase.

Brent crude is closing in on $100 per barrel as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran heighten fears of supply disruptions and growing threats to Gulf shipping. Iran warned Washington of “economic warfare” and said it fired a new advanced missile at U.S. warships, while Saudi Arabia’s Jizan refinery was hit again, a facility with daily capacity of 400,000 barrels. Analysts have begun forecasting the crisis could extend into 2027 and have raised their oil-price expectations.

Ryanair said a spike in jet fuel prices driven by the Iran war has led it to cut its winter passenger target for this year to 214m from 216m. The airline said the 20% of its fuel that was not hedged more than doubled to $150 per barrel, pushing operating costs up 11% to €3.8bn in the three months to June. Pretax profit fell 36% to €593m. Ryanair warned that if oil prices stay elevated, weaker European airlines could be forced to shrink or go out of business.

After the U.S. targeted Iranian tankers, the risk of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz increased, pushing WTI and Brent to $91.05 and $95.68, respectively. Both benchmarks have risen by about $5 since hostilities between the two countries resumed. API data showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels, while another 3.1 million barrels were released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to support commercial stocks.

U.S. commercial crude inventories jumped by 17.4 million barrels in the week ended August 7, versus expectations for a 1.4 million-barrel draw, lifting stocks to 424.4 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. At the same time, agencies sharply lowered their 2026 global oil demand outlook, including an estimate that daily demand will fall by 1.6 million barrels, worsening from a prior forecast. Despite persistent geopolitical risk premia, WTI still rose 5.33% this week to settle at $81.19 a barrel. The growing clash between supply risks and weakening demand expectations is weighing on the outlook for prices.

Glencore expects adjusted EBIT of about $3.3 billion in its marketing business in the first half, marking a record high for the period. The company said extreme volatility in oil markets during the Iran war created arbitrage opportunities for energy traders. Glencore previously posted its highest-ever full-year marketing EBIT in 2022 as the Russia-Ukraine war reshaped energy flows and sent prices sharply higher. The guidance is set to be formally reported next week, drawing comparisons with peers such as Shell.

The U.S.-Iran conflict has sharply escalated, with the U.S. carrying out airstrikes on Iran for a sixth consecutive night and disabling a sanctioned tanker near Iran’s Kharg Island on Thursday. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly ground to a halt, and the Red Sea route also faces the risk of disruption if Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis move to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Brent crude is up 12% for the week, the biggest weekly rise since April, and was at $85.06 a barrel on Friday, while WTI traded at $79.88. U.S. gasoline prices could briefly move above $4 per gallon.