Australia is set to release its second-quarter CPI figures on 29 July, with the market looking for headline inflation to hold at 4.0% year on year and the trimmed mean to rise to 3.8%. The RBA cash rate stands at 4.35%, and interest-rate futures imply only a 28% chance of an August hike. A stronger-than-expected reading would materially lift the odds of an August move, while a result below 3.5% would likely push expectations toward September. The CPI release is the key near-term macro driver for AUD/USD.