The OECD and the ECB warn that a sustained escalation in the Persian Gulf could trigger a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, sharply slowing global growth to 2.1%–1.8% in 2026–2027 and pushing inflation higher. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% on June 11, citing Middle East risks. US inflation rose to 4.2% in May, the highest level since April 2023. The shock is pressuring crude supply and pricing while weighing on rate-sensitive bonds (BE), US dollar assets (ONUS) and growth-focused equity indices (SUS).