In 2025, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio slid from roughly 40 to 20 ounces per BTC as gold outperformed and drew strong buying interest from central banks and ETF investors. Over the same period, spot Bitcoin ETF assets fell from $152 billion to $112 billion and long-term holders realized substantial profits, pressuring BTC on a relative basis. The move reflects diverging demand patterns for gold and Bitcoin rather than a fundamental collapse in BTC's long-term narrative.

On Monday, Bitcoin fell under $86,000 while smaller traders accumulated roughly $474 million in buy volume as larger holders offloaded about $2.78 billion in BTC. Onchain and order flow data indicate whales remain dominant on the sell side and short‑term holders are realizing losses, leaving price exposed to potential retests of $83,800 and possibly $80,600.

Short-term Bitcoin holders reportedly saw profitable conditions on 229 out of 345 trading days in 2025, even as BTC remained below its yearly open and struggled to stay above $100,000. Onchain metrics highlight the STH realized price near $81,000 and shifts in unrealized losses as key drivers of sentiment during multiple profit and loss phases. Analysts are watching whether the current rebound toward $92,500 and fading capitulation can support another expansion phase into 2026.