Axel Adler Jr. reports the composite sentiment index fell to 40%, flagging risk-off conditions as Bitcoin trades near $87,400 under all short-term holder realized price bands. Nearby hurdles sit at $90,300 and then a cluster at $100,400–$101,800, while the broader realized price support stands at $56,300.

BTC's composite Regime Score sits at +16.3, placing it in the +15–30 neutral bracket associated with historically positive returns. Backtests for 2025 show average gains of +3.8% over 30 days, while the liquidation oscillator is at −11% and Long Liquidation Dominance is 44%, indicating short closures predominance. The mix signals a tactical edge for buyers.

According to Axel Adler Jr., the Miner Financial Health Index is at 22%, while the Demand–Supply Balance reads 38% on a 30‑day average. Nominal miner revenue has fallen to about ~40M, marking local lows and signaling profitability strain even with BTC trading well above summer 2022 levels. A sustained dip below the 20% threshold has historically preceded miner capitulation.

Following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, Bitcoin is holding in a consolidation phase as momentum weakens and derivatives flows remain balanced. Internal indicators point to a neutral regime, with participants favoring cautious positioning over aggressive bets. A trend continuation would require simultaneous bullish confirmation in adaptive momentum and the futures flow index.

Bitcoin’s drawdown has narrowed from –35% to roughly –27% since its October peak near $125,000, with 67% of circulating supply still in profit—signals that point to a stabilizing market rather than deep capitulation, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr. Short-term momentum is beginning to turn upward as BTC consolidates around the $90,000 level.

Bitcoin has rebounded from its October peak and subsequent pullback to around $80K, rising steadily for 14 days and moving close to its 52‑week high as the 200/20DMA slope turns positive. Polymarket is pricing a 96% probability of a 25 b.p. December rate cut to 3.50–3.75%, a backdrop that can support risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's 2025 cycle drawdown is roughly -32% from its all-time high, with prices holding near the $90K area and about 88% of coins still in unrealized profit, according to Axel Adler Jr. Around 12% of supply is at a loss, compared with past bear markets that often saw -60–80% drawdowns and roughly 60% of coins underwater. The current pullback therefore appears comparatively mild versus previous bear phases in terms of both depth and the share of supply in loss.

Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Structure Index shows a developing divergence, with the fast-tracking component declining to 18% while the slow version remains at 23%. The -5.28 point gap marks the first such signal since early December. The divergence emerges ahead of the Federal Reserve's December 10 rate decision, with markets assigning an 85% probability to a 25 basis point cut.

Bitcoin declined to $92,000 following a -32% drawdown from its all-time high, marking the steepest correction in the current cycle. On-chain data shows the P/L Score has remained in the -3 zone since November 6, a level historically associated with bearish market regimes and extended correction phases.