On Sunday, BTC/USD climbed to $71,000 and was up 20% versus Friday's 15‑month lows, according to TradingView, though intraday gains peaked near 3%. Analysts Filbfilb, Tony Severino and BitBull cautioned that final capitulation may still lie ahead, with one calling for a "real bottom" below $50,000 and Checkonchain citing a U.S. spot ETF cost basis around $82,000.

Bitcoin fell back below $69,000 at the start of the weekend after testing levels above its 2021 peak, with some analysts arguing that a macro bottom has not yet formed. Others are focusing on CME Bitcoin futures gaps, including one around $84,000, as potential upside targets in a broader relief move.

On Friday, Martin Leinweber of MarketVector Indexes said Bitcoin fell 2.88 standard deviations below its 200‑day simple moving average, an unprecedented gap in a decade of data. He argued such extremes raise the likelihood of mean reversion, while weekly losses topped 22%. On Thursday, BTC also posted a $10,000 daily decline, with sentiment sinking to 9/100 on the Fear & Greed Index.

Bitcoin fell below $70,000 on Thursday, touching $69,100 on Bitstamp during the Asia session, according to TradingView. CoinGlass showed about $130 million in long liquidations over four hours as traders watched the 200‑week EMA near $69,000 and discussed potential downside toward $50,000, while the Coinbase Premium hit its lowest in more than a year.

After the U.S. trading session on Feb. 4, 2026, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $72,500 on Bitstamp, setting a fresh 15‑month low under $73,000. The move came as macro markets, including gold and silver, reversed recent gains and more than $800 million in crypto positions were liquidated, with traders eyeing downside targets around $50,000 and $59,000–$65,000.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin traded sideways below the $80,000 resistance level while gold rebounded toward the $5,000 area and silver posted a double‑digit daily gain. Market observers debated Bitcoin's long‑term performance versus gold, and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued that the current "crypto winter", which he dates from January 2025, may be nearing its end.

Analysts offered conflicting views on Bitcoin after the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI moved back above 50 for the first time since 2022. Andre Dragosch framed the backdrop as "reflation" and supportive for BTC, while Michaël van de Poppe and Titan of Crypto cautioned that current cycle dynamics and a possible bearish divergence could temper upside.

At the start of the first week of February, Bitcoin traded near levels last seen in November 2024, with several analysts highlighting $76,000–$50,000 as a key support area and warning of potential downside below $50,000. At the same time, weekly and daily RSI readings are approaching oversold levels associated with the 2022 bear-market low, while CME futures gaps, macro liquidity concerns, a sharp precious-metals sell-off and a deeply negative Coinbase Premium are shaping expectations for what comes next.

Bitcoin stayed below $80,000 after a drop of more than 6%, and traders on X highlighted $74,400 and $49,180 as downside liquidity. Rekt Capital noted a 21–50 week EMA crossover last seen in April 2022, with BTC down 17% from $90,000 to $78,000, while a CME futures gap near $84,000 may pull price short term.