On Nov. 21, 2026, onchain research suggested Bitcoin could still be in a bear market despite a 21% price rise since late November 2025. BTC has bounced from lows near $80,500 to about $97,900, but remains under its 365-day moving average at $101,000, a level analysts view as critical for confirming a more durable recovery. The study also highlighted rising exchange inflows around 39,000 BTC on a 7‑day basis, indicating potential selling pressure ahead.

At Thursday's Wall Street open, Bitcoin fell below $96,000 amid headlines suggesting easing U.S.–Iran tensions. TradingView data showed a low at $95,563, with traders watching $94,000 as near-term support alongside the 200‑day EMA around $99,555 and a weekly close target near $93,500.

On Monday, Bitcoin underperformed gold and silver in what some analysts describe as the debasement trade, with BTC trading near its lowest level against gold in two years. Investment specialist Karel Mercx argued that investors now favor physical precious metals over Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency dilution, while gold also strengthens against the S&P 500. Other crypto commentators warned that Bitcoin’s market needs a stronger breakout as gold and silver notch fresh all-time highs.

Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer identifies $65k as Bitcoin's critical "line in the sand," with the power-law trendline near $45k if 2026 becomes a consolidation year. On January 10, 2026, David Eng argued bear markets persist as cycles lengthen and volatility eases, adding that compressed readings imply price must catch up.

According to TradingView data, large Bitfinex accounts reduced Bitcoin long exposure after a late-December peak near 73,000 BTC. X commentator MartyParty links the unwind to a Wyckoff-style spring and cites a potential move toward $135k, while CryptoQuant reports whale balances declined by over 200,000 BTC over the past year.

Trader BitBull says Bitcoin's weekly RSI broke its downtrend in December, pointing to a potential move to $103K–$105K within three to four weeks. James Easton notes the two‑week RSI has flipped bullish at levels below late‑2022, while Skew flags a passive seller near $91,500 as BTC attempts to hold $90,000 support.

On January 8, 2026, traders on X reiterated bearish views after Bitcoin failed to clear $95,000 and drifted back toward its yearly open near $90,000, according to TradingView. Several participants highlighted support at $87.5k–$89k and warned of a potential slide toward $76,000, citing a developing weekly "Death Cross" as a reason to sell strength.

On Wednesday, Keith Alan of Material Indicators said Bitcoin will likely revisit the 2026 yearly open near $87,500 as whales push for a deeper support test. Despite a possible daily "golden cross" between the 21- and 50-day SMAs, multiple short signals mean a new all‑time high appears unlikely in 2026, with $92,000 support in focus.

In the first week of 2026, data from Capriole Investments showed institutions purchasing more Bitcoin each day than miners added to circulation, with net buying exceeding new supply by 76% on one recent day. The firm's Net Institutional Buying indicator has now been positive for eight consecutive sessions, a pattern that previously coincided with average BTC price gains of 109% since 2020. After Bitcoin plunged nearly 40% from its October all-time high of $126,200, some analysts suggest the asset could revisit levels above $100,000 in January, although outcomes remain uncertain.