At the start of 2026, XRP is trading above $2 after reclaiming its 50-day simple moving average, with institutional investors adding around $45 million over the past week. While broader crypto products saw about $454 million in outflows, analysts say XRP’s balanced volumes and key resistance near $2.40 will shape whether the price can extend toward the $3 area.

Bitcoin climbed to $97,500 in early 2026 after posting a daily close above $95,000, forming a new higher high. On-chain and derivatives metrics, including a more than $500 million Binance net taker volume spike and rising open interest, indicate sustained bullish momentum with technical scope toward $103,500. Key areas now watched by traders extend between $90,000 and $107,500 as BTC attempts to consolidate above prior resistance.

ETH’s estimated leverage ratio eased from 0.79 on Jan. 2 to 0.67 by Jan. 11 while open interest climbed, and spot-led buying strengthened. Aggregated futures OI has rebounded toward pre-Q4 2025 drawdown levels, yet ETH trades about 27% below its Oct. 10, 2025 opening price. Staking inflows and macro signals add potential tailwinds for a push toward $4,000.

Dormant Bitcoin moved on-chain, with OG whale spent value hitting about $286 million on Jan. 10, the largest revival since Nov. 3, 2025. Long-term holder distribution has cooled and accumulator wallets added nearly 136,000 BTC in 11 days, supporting momentum even as near-term volatility could test the $86,000–$87,000 zone before a $100,000 push.

On-chain data analysis shows Bitcoin long-term holders sold nearly $300 billion of BTC in 2025, including a notable 30-day spike between November 15 and December 14. Since December, LTH supply has stabilized near 13.6 million BTC and the LTH/STH ratio fell to roughly -0.53, conditions that have historically preceded base-building and later rallies.

In the first days of January 2026, Bitcoin accumulator addresses absorbed roughly 60,000 BTC while miners transferred about 33,000 BTC to Binance. This tug-of-war between renewed accumulation and rising miner outflows is unfolding as BTC trades back toward the low-$90,000 range, with on-chain flows and sentiment data pointing to a cautious but stabilizing market.

Bitcoin finished 2025 slightly negative at −6.36%, and prior cycles show years following drawdowns delivered gains of 35%, 95%, and 156%, averaging near 95%. Jesse Myers and Sminston With flag models that outline a $200,000–$300,000 base-case for 2026. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant metrics point to subdued momentum, with a 30-day average return of 0.0016 and a Sharpe-like ratio around 0.09.

From March to October 2024, Bitcoin traded between $50,000 and $74,000 before a 56% post‑election rally that coincided with a sharp rise in futures open interest. Spot ETF inflows of about $35 billion in 2024 and roughly $22 billion in 2025, together with a 50% drop in stablecoin exchange inflows, showed how sustained capital and liquidity, rather than headlines alone, shaped Bitcoin's breakouts and consolidations. Long-term holders realizing over $1 billion per day in profits and a halving of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio further constrained upside in 2025 despite bullish narratives.

Large Ether holders increased purchases while price remains below $3,000. Since Nov. 4, one "66k ETH Borrow Whale" accumulated 569,247 ETH ($1.69 billion), and in the past 24 hours Bitmine bought 67,886 ETH ($201 million). About 70% of derivatives positions are net long, and ETH's leverage ratio hit 0.611 last week.