BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Projects Bitcoin Could Drop to $80K-$85K Before Potential Rally to $200K-$250K by Year-End

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes outlined a two-phase Bitcoin price scenario in his blog post "Snow Forecast," published Nov. 18. Hayes noted Bitcoin's decline from $125,000 to the $90,000 range while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 remain near all-time highs, suggesting a potential credit event may be developing, supported by declining dollar liquidity index trends since July. He projected Bitcoin could fall to $80,000-$85,000 if equity markets correct 10%-20% and 10-year Treasury yields approach 5%, potentially forcing emergency monetary intervention. Should broader risk markets collapse and trigger accelerated money printing by the Federal Reserve and Treasury, Hayes estimates Bitcoin could surge to $200,000-$250,000 by year-end.