Analyst Warns Bitcoin Bear Market May Deepen As Current 44% Drawdown Lags Past Cycles

Bitcoin has fallen about 44% from its $126,080 all-time high, with a local bottom near $63,000 marking a 53% drawdown, yet an analyst known as Jelle on X argues this remains mild compared with earlier bear markets. Citing historical declines of roughly 84% in 2017 and 77% after the 2021 peak, as well as cycle lengths of 150–152 weeks for bull runs and 52–58 weeks for bear phases, Jelle suggests the present downturn could extend further and last until around October 2026. He also notes that a weekly RSI drop below 37 and a subsequent bullish divergence have historically signaled Bitcoin's final bear market lows, a structure he says has not yet appeared.