Analysts Merlijn and Arthur Hayes Outline Conditions for Buying Bitcoin in 2026 Cycle

Crypto analyst Merlijn the Trader argues Bitcoin’s current cycle may be shortening to 700–800 days, implying a potential price bottom around July–August 2026 and making current levels uncomfortable but potentially important for buyers. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is staying on the sidelines until the U.S. Federal Reserve resumes aggressive liquidity expansion, warning that a geopolitical shock could briefly push Bitcoin below $60,000 even as he maintains long-term targets between $250,000 and $750,000. Both emphasize that volatility and uncertainty do not necessarily mean the long-term opportunity in Bitcoin has disappeared.