In November 2025, a sharp spike in Bitcoin’s dormant circulation signaled that many long-term holders used a price rally to exit, leaving 2026 trading shaped by their earlier distribution. On-chain data into early 2026 shows Coin Days Destroyed and other age-based metrics at historically low levels, suggesting most remaining long-term investors are inactive even as price hovers far above their cost basis. This has created a two-speed market: short-term traders and some early whales are taking profits, while a large pool of older coins stays untouched, pointing to a prolonged consolidation rather than outright panic.

According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined $787.31 million in net inflows over the latest week, snapping a run of five straight weeks of redemptions. Despite the rebound, overall February flows for these products still closed with a net outflow of $206.52 million due to earlier heavy withdrawals, while spot Ethereum ETFs also saw a smaller $80.46 million weekly inflow.

Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin-focused firm Jan3, argues that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued compared with gold and the global money supply, pointing to a 24%–66% discount to trend and an overextended gold price above $5,247 per ounce. He highlights the Bitcoin-to-gold Z-score, now around -1.24, noting that past drops below -2 or -3 in 2020 and 2022 preceded rallies of more than 150% and 300%. Other market analysts, however, warn that current price action resembles the 2022 bear market and suggest Bitcoin could retreat toward $50,000 despite its recent recovery to around $66,400.

On March 1, macro economist Henrik Zeberg said on X that Bitcoin could top out at $110,000–$120,000 in March 2026, citing risk-on sentiment, ETF inflows, and institutional demand. He also gave a 25% chance of an overshoot to $140,000–$150,000, and projected ETH at $10,000–$12,000 and SOL at $350–$500.

Bitcoin's mining difficulty has climbed about 15% to roughly 144.40T, marking the largest single upward adjustment since around 2021 and arriving while the BTC price trades in the mid-$60,000s with repeated moves toward $65,000. The higher difficulty has pushed hashprice down from about $33.5 to around $29.7 per PH/s/day, narrowing miner margins and increasing the likelihood that some operators will meet cash needs by selling treasury coins, even as network security and block-time stability improve.

On Sunday, chairman Michael Saylor said Strategy will raise the monthly dividend on its perpetual STRC preferred to 11.50% for March 2026, up from 11.25%. A Friday website update confirmed the 25-basis-point adjustment, with the next payout scheduled for March 31 to shareholders of record.

Bitcoin's early 2026 gains faded as the asset fell to a local low of $60,000 in early February and still closed the month with a double-digit percentage loss, marking five straight months in the red. Ethereum's run has been even weaker, with six consecutive negative months and steep drops of 17.7% and 19.6% in January and February while struggling to remain above $2,000.

On March 1, 2026, Michael Saylor said Strategy's Stretch Dividend Rate was raised by 25 bps to 11.50% for March 2026. Critics argue the dividend-centric approach, coupled with debt-funded Bitcoin accumulation, could strain cash flows if BTC stays under key moving averages with leverage still elevated. Supporters frame it as financial engineering aligned with long-term Bitcoin exposure.