Fed January 25 bps Cut Odds Drop to 13.3% After U.S. Data; Q3 Real GDP at 4.3%

Odds of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in January fell to 13.3% after U.S. data released on Dec. 23, with hold probability at 86.7%, CME FedWatch data show. The initial estimate for Q3 real GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter stood at 4.3%, the strongest since Q4 2023. For March, CME data show 54.4% odds of a hold, 40.7% for a cumulative 25 bps cut, and 4.9% for 50 bps.