In Q4 2025, Bitcoin has fallen 22.8%, putting it on pace for its second-weakest fourth-quarter result in history and leaving the price consolidating above $85k. Derivatives desks and options analysts expect heightened volatility around the 26 December expiry, with some still eyeing a possible breakout from the current $85k–$90k range. On-chain data platforms warn that demand growth has slowed since early October, raising the risk of a deeper bear phase even if a short-term bounce emerges.

ETHZilla, backed by Peter Thiel, said it sold $74.5 million (24,291 ETH) to reduce debt and will discontinue its mNAV metric while pivoting to tokenization. The reversal follows mNAV slipping below 1 in early December and an October effort to prop it up with $40 million in ETH sales, as broader ETH treasuries and ETFs posted sizable outflows.

According to Dune, Solana’s network activity fell 97% in Q4 2025, with monthly active traders sliding from over 30 million in late 2024 to under 1 million in 2025. SOL dropped from nearly $300 to the $120 yearly support as memecoin-driven activity weakened, while analysts debated outcomes ranging from a $50–$75 target in H1 2026 to a 15% rebound toward $134–$140.

Several major crypto research desks outlined sharply different Bitcoin projections for 2026, with targets ranging from a pullback toward $60K–$65K to a potential move toward $250K. Around $23 billion in BTC options expiring on 26 December and recent ETF outflows near $500 million could shape short‑term volatility around the $85K–$90K range.

U.S. Reps. Max Miller (Ohio) and Steven Horsford (Nevada) proposed a de minimis tax exemption for stablecoin payments of $200 or less. In July 2025, Sen. Cynthia Lummis advanced a similar $300 threshold that failed to pass. Banks oppose 3%-4% stablecoin yields, while industry leaders, including Tyler Winklevoss, are pushing back.

In Q4 2025, Bitcoin fell by 30% after breaking below $90k, slipping under its 50-week EMA and putting the broader uptrend at risk. Some analysts argue that even a move down to the $60k-$70k area would represent a macro range and potential bottom rather than a classic bear market, despite around 7 million BTC now sitting at a loss.

Crypto market sentiment has slid into "extreme fear" ahead of the Bank of Japan's 19 December rate call, with prior comparable episodes noted in mid-November and Q1 2025. Polymarket indicates consensus for a 25 bps hike in December, while options data shows bearish positioning around $85K. At press time, Bitcoin traded near $87K, with key liquidity levels clustered at $90.8K, $94.5K–$95K, and $83K.

Aave stated on December 16 that the SEC had closed its four-year investigation, referencing a letter the team received in mid-August. Founder Stani Kulechov said the process drained resources and declared "DeFi will win." Following the update, AAVE fell about 4% to $183, while Binance Altcoin Netflow pointed to exchange outflows and possible accumulation below $200.

On 15 December, Strategy purchased 10.6K BTC worth over $980 million, after acquiring another $962 million in Bitcoin the previous week, lifting its total BTC investment above $50 billion. Analysts claim Michael Saylor’s rapid, share-funded accumulation suggests he is positioning for potential BTC-backed banking products, even as critics warn about MSTR stock dilution and the price dropped over 8%.