Bitcoin is approaching a record $23.6 billion options expiry on Dec. 26, with positions clustered near key strikes that could reshape dealer hedging and short term volatility. At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US are seeing sustained net outflows and price is consolidating around $87,106 within a tight range marked by resistance near $90,647 and support around $83,986. How flows and liquidity evolve after the holiday period may determine whether the market extends its weakness or sets up for a sharper reversal.

Bitcoin has fallen below $87,000, while crypto ETFs saw $284.1 mn in net outflows on December 23 and leverage remains high. Market cap is around $2.94 tn with daily volume near $90.6 bn, and BTC dominance stands at 59.1% as traders watch support at $86,500 and resistance near $88,800.

On 24 December 2025, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs registered significant net outflows, with thin holiday liquidity and year-end portfolio moves weighing on flows. Bitcoin products saw $188.6 million in redemptions and Ethereum funds lost $95.5 million, while XRP and Solana ETFs attracted smaller inflows. Several analysts described the pattern as seasonal rebalancing and profit-taking rather than a shift in longer-term sentiment toward crypto ETFs.

On 24 December 2025, a potential 2026 IPO by Kraken was framed as a possible catalyst for fresh institutional inflows while Bitcoin struggled to recover after a late‑year setback. The asset remains below its October record above $126,000 following a roughly $19 billion liquidation, with opinions split between continued expansion and a cooler phase in 2026.

On December 24, the Bitcoin (BTC) price slipped 0.38% over the previous 24 hours and was changing hands near $87,306. Intraday, the pair rebounded from local support at $86,718, but broader time frames indicate fading volume and a likely consolidation between $86,000 and $89,000 with limited volatility for the rest of the month.

Macro trader plur daddy outlined a 2026 Bitcoin framework focused on US liquidity normalization. Following the Dec FOMC’s $40bn/mo reserve management purchases and fiscal changes starting Jan 1, he sees conditions likely moving from tight toward neutral. He cited $38bn already purchased, a $100–200bn reserve deficit, and $12–15bn/mo deficit expansion.

In its 2026 outlook, VanEck says Bitcoin has trailed the Nasdaq 100 by roughly 50% year to date in 2025, a gap it argues could precede outperformance next year. David Schassler also pointed to gold's surge past $4,500 an ounce and projected $5,000 in 2026, while Matthew Sigel expects a consolidation phase.

Bitcoin has fallen over 35% from its roughly $126,200 peak two months ago, and multiple indicators signal waning sell pressure. VanEck analysts cite a 4% hashrate decline into Dec. 15, while Miad Kasravi's NFCI timing has often preceded rallies by 4–6 weeks; momentum gauges have turned up from oversold.