Kalshi traders price nearly 40% odds of stagflation by end of 2026

Kalshi traders are assigning close to a 40% probability that the economy faces stagflation—high inflation alongside unemployment—by the end of 2026. The implied odds rose from 11% in under three months, while a soft-landing outcome is priced at 21%, the lowest on Kalshi's economy scenarios. Separately, traders put the chance that inflation is at least 4.5% this year at above 65%.