China's STAR50 technology index ended Oct. 26, 2026, almost 40% below its July closing high. Tencent's closing-price series fell from 2,185.83 on July 9 to 1,315.5 on Oct. 26, a loss of 39.8169% over 71 subsequent Chinese trading sessions. Reuters estimated the associated market-value loss at roughly $480 billion, a separate measure from the index-level calculation. Bitcoin gained 26.6%, about 27%, between the same July 9 and Oct. 26 endpoints. STAR50 comprises 50 large, liquid securities listed on Shanghai's technology board, so the decline reflects equity repricing, not China's entire AI industry. A comparison using Yahoo Finance histories examined every overlapping 71-session return for US indexes through Oct. 26. STAR50's decline ranked among the most extreme losses in that historical sample, including against semiconductor stocks. Overlapping periods share observations and cluster around crises, so the observed frequencies are not independent probabilities of a crash. The calculation measures changes between closing prices at equally spaced trading-session endpoints, not the largest decline within each period. It also does not treat a four-month decline as equivalent to an entire bear market lasting several years. Bitcoin has fallen alongside broader markets in selected earlier episodes. From Feb. 19 to March 23, 2020, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 27.9% and Bitcoin fell 33.4%. From Jan. 3 to Dec. 30, 2022, the Nasdaq 100 lost 33.7% and Bitcoin declined 64.3%. Federal Reserve tightening and crypto-specific stress involving FTX overlapped in 2022, preventing that period from isolating technology stocks' effect on Bitcoin. During the DeepSeek episode, from Jan. 24 to Jan. 27, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 fell 3%, semiconductor stocks lost 9.2% and Bitcoin declined 2.6%. Reuters reported an approximately 6% intraday Bitcoin decline that Monday, using a different observation time from the closing-price calculation. Each episode matches calendar endpoints across assets, but the episodes span different durations. US stock trading ends in New York, whereas Bitcoin daily bars use UTC dates, preventing these comparisons from establishing exact intraday response times. Between July 9 and Oct. 26, the CSI 300 declined 15.9%. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.5% over that period. US semiconductor stocks lost 14.5% over the same interval. Bitcoin's largest closing peak-to-trough decline within that window was 7.6%. The Nasdaq 100's largest closing peak-to-trough decline within the window was 8.8%. Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 had a daily log-return correlation of about 0.63 across 30 matched US market dates ending Oct. 26, compared with 0.36 for the sample ending July 9. The positive correlation measures daily co-movement within the sample, showing that divergent cumulative returns do not rule out short-term links. The IMF describes margin calls, concentrated positioning and investor withdrawals as mechanisms that can force leveraged funds to sell holdings across markets. A broader demand for cash could similarly outweigh demand specific to Bitcoin. The central risk for crypto investors is whether China's equity decline produces wider financing pressure that reaches Bitcoin. Farside recorded $636 million in net withdrawals from US spot Bitcoin ETFs on Oct. 22. Farside recorded $110 million in net inflows on Oct. 26. US high-yield credit spreads narrowed from 3.4% on Oct. 22 to 3.3% on Oct. 26. The broad dollar index changed little across the latest available readings, covering Oct. 19 to Oct. 23. SOFR stood at 3.93% on Oct. 26, three basis points above the Federal Reserve's 3.9% reserve-balance rate. That comparison pairs a market borrowing rate with an administered policy rate and captures only one component of dollar funding. Continued US technology-stock declines, together with widening credit spreads, increasing funding pressure and sustained ETF withdrawals, would provide stronger evidence of contagion. Stable financing and a return to ETF buying despite additional losses in China would weaken that interpretation.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in a net $137.3 million on Wednesday, a third straight day of inflows. BlackRock's IBIT brought $136 million and Bitwise's BITB $1.3 million, lifting the three day total to $423.6 million. Bitcoin still slid from above $81,700 to near $79,800 in Asian trading after the Fed held rates, and $356 million in leveraged bets were wiped out in 24 hours.

Bitcoin traded above the Strategy 2026 cost line of $78,900 on October 29, but purchases since 2025 remain underwater. Strategy holds 848,517 BTC at an overall average cost near $75,446. Its blended cost, including 2025 buys and summer sales near the low, is about $90,600. Strategy resumed buying after a multiweek pause and made no purchases last week.

Bitcoin has climbed above Strategy's 2026 holding cost line of $78,900. The company holds 848,517 BTC at an average cost of about $75,446. Including 2025 purchases and sales near this summer's low, its consolidated cost is about $90,600, leaving those buys in a floating loss. Strategy resumed buying after a multiweek pause but made no purchase last week.

Thailand’s Supreme Court ruled bitcoin qualifies as property in a robbery case, rejecting a defendant’s claim it has no value of its own. The court upheld a 10-year sentence over a 2022 Koh Samui incident where a victim was forced to exchange $50,000 for about 2.48 BTC. Judges cited Thailand’s 2018 digital asset decree and said bitcoin’s lack of legal tender status does not stop it being property.

Bitcoin exchange netflow turned positive for the first time since Sept. 21, ending a 38-day stretch of predominantly negative readings in which more BTC was leaving trading platforms than entering them. The shift indicates deposits now exceed withdrawals. Large-scale selling has not yet emerged. Traders are watching whether the inflows translate into selling pressure or remain limited. The reading marks a notable change in on-chain activity and suggests holders are less aggressive about withdrawing BTC from exchanges. One market observation put it this way: “Holders stopped withdrawing, but sellers aren’t here in size yet.” Exchange deposits do not automatically signal sales. Holders may send BTC to exchanges to trade, but they may also move coins for custody, collateral or liquidity management. For now, the deposit-withdrawal balance has changed without clear evidence of a major selling wave. Investors continue to monitor Bitcoin’s broader market direction. Netflow measures the difference between BTC entering and leaving exchanges. Negative netflow means withdrawals exceed deposits, often as investors move Bitcoin into private custody, reducing the supply immediately available for trading. Positive netflow means more Bitcoin is entering exchanges than leaving, which can show holders preparing to trade or reposition assets. The implications depend on the size and persistence of the inflows. A small positive reading may reflect normal exchange activity rather than a meaningful shift in sentiment. Sustained large inflows, especially alongside rising spot selling volume, would offer stronger evidence of potential selling pressure. The latest reading suggests sellers have not appeared in significant numbers. It is an early signal, not confirmation of a bearish trend. CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) cited @IT_Tech_PL in an October 29, 2026 post: “Holders stopped withdrawing, but sellers aren’t here in size yet.” pic.twitter.com/gsExwhJUIh Positive netflow raises the question of whether BTC prices could face added pressure. If more holders transfer BTC to exchanges and sell, available supply could rise. Without sufficient buying demand, that supply may weigh on prices. Current data do not establish that this scenario is unfolding. Traders will likely watch whether positive netflows persist in coming days and whether spot volumes rise. Exchange reserves, large-holder activity and institutional investment flows could provide additional context. Modest inflows alongside improving demand could help Bitcoin avoid significant selling pressure. A sustained increase in deposits with weak buying activity would be a warning sign. The shift does not provide a specific Bitcoin price target or predict the timing of the next market move. Bitcoin’s first positive exchange netflow since Sept. 21 signals changing holder behavior, not necessarily an incoming selloff. The next key test is whether the additional BTC entering exchanges turns into actual selling.

Bitcoin Core disclosed three vulnerabilities found in an AI scan within a week. One lets any connected peer exhaust memory and crash nodes on Windows, macOS or BSD. Developers confirmed it Oct 23, fixed it Oct 27 and published details Wednesday. Core now patches easily discoverable flaws across supported versions and issues public advisories instead of withholding them for up to a year.

Bitcoin ETFs attracted $176 million in one day, lifting two day inflows above $286 million and pointing to steady institutional demand. Aave increased BTC and ETH borrowing limits across V3 and V4, adding about 11% more room for WBTC. Crypto ownership among Americans rose to 22% from 18%, while past year use held at 13%.

Bitwise expects Bitcoin to reach $1.6 million by 2036, about 19 times the $83,557 starting price in its model. Its base case assigns Bitcoin 25% of the store-of-value market it shares with gold. That segment contributes about $27.5 trillion, roughly 82% of the projected $33.6 trillion total. The store-of-value assumption drives the forecast more than any other input. The model uses a total addressable market approach. Bitwise sizes markets, estimates Bitcoin penetration and divides the resulting value by the full supply of 21 million coins. It expects the combined gold and Bitcoin market to expand from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036. At the starting price, the circulating supply of 20.1 million coins is worth about $1.7 trillion, roughly 5% of today's $31.1 trillion market. The six remaining categories, including institutional portfolios and national treasury reserves, contribute about $6 trillion altogether. Bitwise highlights a strengthening correlation between Bitcoin and gold. The 90-day correlation hit a record 0.58 on Sept. 11. Bitwise expects the relationship to continue and strengthen as more people recognize Bitcoin's store-of-value characteristics. The model uses a gold correlation of 0.21 for the next decade, compared with a 10-year average of 0.11. In the bear case, Bitcoin captures 2.5% of the store-of-value market and receives no value from other market categories. Those assumptions produce a 2036 price of $130,686, equal to a 4.6% annual return. Bitcoin trades at $79,902 after falling 1.12% over the past day. The base case implies a 34.3% annual return. JPMorgan's 2036 Bitcoin scenarios put the base-case annual return at 10%, substantially below Bitwise's projection. Jim Cramer said this month that gold remains his preferred portfolio insurance over Bitcoin. Bitwise identifies quantum computing, mathematical advances driven by artificial intelligence and a reversal in regulation as major risks. The largest variation in the model comes from how much of gold's role Bitcoin captures by 2036.