Bitcoin Steadies Near $65,000 as AI Shares Slide; Fed Week Could Set the Next Move

Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $64,994.59 on Monday, showing relative resilience even as AI-related tech stocks came under pressure. BTC held near the $65,000 mark, up about 4% since Friday, while ether (ETH) rose to its strongest level in nearly two months. A pullback in Nvidia, down 4.8%, weighed on AI favorites, though the Nasdaq was roughly flat as Apple, Microsoft and Google gained. Market focus now shifts to a heavy U.S. macro and earnings calendar that analysts say could determine whether bitcoin breaks out of its months-long range or slips back toward June lows. This week brings the Federal Reserve's policy decision, key inflation data and results from several large technology companies. "The recent resilience of crypto during periods of volatility in traditional markets is an encouraging development," said Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group. He added that it supports the view digital assets are starting to decouple, at least at the margin, from conventional risk assets. Kruger said bitcoin needs to clear $67,300 to break above the multi-week consolidation that has capped prices since June. A move through that level could mark the next leg higher. Ether faces a comparable hurdle near $2,000. Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine and co-founder of Fundstrat, also pointed to ether's recent outperformance versus bitcoin as a constructive signal. The ETH/BTC ratio, which tracks ether priced in bitcoin, rose to a three-month high on Monday. Skeptics remain. Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said the rebound has not shown the type of buying conviction typically seen ahead of sustained rallies. "The market is holding range without strong buyers, not building toward a breakout," he said. His base case calls for a pullback toward $52,000–$58,000 unless conditions improve. Sondergaard noted that nearly 9,000 BTC left exchanges over the past week, but bitcoin futures open interest has fallen even as prices edged higher, suggesting traders are reducing exposure rather than adding new bullish positions. Order book data also continues to indicate net selling pressure, he said. He expects the Fed's rate decision and messaging on Wednesday to set the tone for risk assets. Investors will also track Thursday's core PCE inflation report, second-quarter GDP data and earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon, ahead of roughly $13–$14 billion in bitcoin and ether options expiring on Friday. For Nansen to turn more constructive, the firm wants to see stronger stablecoin inflows to exchanges, sustained spot bitcoin ETF buying, and evidence that long-term holders have stopped selling at a loss. Until then, Sondergaard views the recent uptick as a positioning bounce rather than the start of a broader uptrend.