Charles Schwab Analyst Puts Bitcoin "Fair Value" at $95,000 Using Mining Cost Model

Charles Schwab has published a valuation yardstick for Bitcoin that leans on a traditional commodity-style approach: production costs. Jim Ferraioli, the firm's Director of Digital Currencies Research and Strategy, estimates Bitcoin's near-term "fair value" at $95,000, using the cost structure faced by the least efficient miners rather than technical indicators or market sentiment. Using Glassnode data, Schwab's framework separates miners into two broad groups. More efficient operators—typically running newer hardware with cheaper power—are estimated to produce a bitcoin at about $60,000. Less efficient miners, burdened by older rigs or higher electricity costs, face production expenses closer to $95,000 per coin. Ferraioli treats the $95,000 level as the primary fair-value reference, generally with a modest premium. The rationale mirrors commodity markets: if marginal production costs sit near $95,000, prices need to trade at or above that level to keep the broader mining base economically viable. The $60,000 figure serves as a fundamental support zone—a level where even the most cost-effective miners begin to feel pressure. Schwab notes that this cost threshold also lines up with Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, currently around $60,000 to $62,000. The production-cost lens drew added attention during parts of 2026 when Bitcoin fell below $80,000. At those prices, a sizable share of miners would be operating at a loss relative to the $95,000 estimate. Schwab's research across June and July continued to highlight these cost floors as a key fundamental signal even while market prices remained well under the stated fair value. The $95,000 area has also acted as a resistance level in prior cycles, reinforcing that it has been a meaningful price zone in actual trading. Ferraioli joined Schwab in 2025 from Morgan Stanley, as the brokerage builds out institutional-grade crypto research. Schwab's mining-economics model is positioned as the type of fundamentals-driven framework that traditional investors often prefer, relying on observable inputs such as energy costs, hardware depreciation, and infrastructure spending. For investors, the implication is straightforward: if the model is right, Bitcoin trading well below $95,000 suggests the market is valuing the asset beneath its marginal cost of production. Schwab's analysis frames $60,000 as a key line—the efficient-miner breakeven level, a zone reinforced by the 200-week moving average, and a point where the firm suggests the most aggressive buying opportunities could appear during pullbacks. Schwab also flags a practical risk: sentiment-driven selloffs can keep prices below production costs for long stretches, as seen in 2022. Miners also may not shut down quickly; many can run at a loss for months while waiting for a rebound, delaying the supply contraction that production-cost models assume will help stabilize prices.