Fed Likely to Hold Rates Steady in October, CME FedWatch Shows 90.6% Probability

CoinDesk reports: Market Snapshot BTC traded at $80,742.82, down 0.59% over the past 24 hours. ETH was at $2,363.82, down 0.73%. XRP was at $1.285, down 1.52%. BNB was at $733.69, up 0.48%. SOL was at $101.82, down 1.34%. TRX was at $0.32922, up 0.48%. DOGE was at $0.07750, down 1.36%. HYPE was at $76.406, down 0.90%. News Updates CME FedWatch shows a 90.6% probability the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in October, with a 9.4% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. By December, the probability of a hold is 25.8%, a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 67.5%, and a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 6.7%. AI infrastructure is facing turmoil, with Neoclouds under pressure, credit risks intensifying, and Solidigm withdrawing its IPO application, according to CoinWorld, citing CNBC. CoinDesk reports, citing Benzinga, that China accounted for 74.2% of global AI patents in 2024, up sharply from 18.2% in 2014. The U.S. share fell to 12.1%, and Europe's slipped to 3.0%. Meta Platforms has announced the acquisition of AI data platform Sundial, with transaction details undisclosed. The move marks further expansion into artificial intelligence and is aimed at strengthening data processing and analytics, CoinDesk reports. OpenAI will train its cutting-edge models without internet access, CoinDesk reports. Crypto Updates Whale Alert data shows 706 BTC were transferred to an unknown wallet, worth about $57.47 million at current prices. CME Group recorded $326.7 billion in total notional Bitcoin derivatives trading volume in the third quarter of 2026, according to CoinDesk, citing Bitcoin Magazine. At 05:21, the USDC Treasury minted 250 million new USDC on the Solana network, worth about $250 million. Solscan data shows the mint transaction was confirmed. Terawulf said in its latest SEC filing that it increased its revolving credit facility commitment from $250 million to $400 million, according to CoinDesk. The BTC DVOL index last read 37.25 points, CoinMarketCap data shows. Opinion North American Blue Energy Partners Inc. is working with the U.S. government to develop oil fields in Venezuela and has deployed its sixth drilling rig. CEO Alejandro Betancourt said the company's output in western Venezuela reached a record 115,000 barrels per day. The company plans to bring in 60 drilling rigs, 30 steam boilers, and 70 heavy construction machines under a 25-year plan. Analyst Ki Young Ju said an AI bubble burst may have limited impact on Bitcoin, as investors could return to Bitcoin after AI stocks rebound, CoinDesk reports. CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz said AI has demonstrated that PHP vulnerabilities can be exploited, putting tens of millions of servers at risk. He noted the flaws, nearly two decades old, were previously only "theoretical" before AI proved they could be attacked, forcing everyone into a "very rapid patching cycle." Kurtz added that large companies will patch their systems and modern PHP versions will be updated, but some older versions may not be. He warned that many people are not paying enough attention to the fact that old routers and firewalls running outdated PHP "will never be patched," leading to "massive breaches" over the coming months. He emphasized, "You need to focus on the watch, not the calendar." France has temporarily avoided a Moody's downgrade, keeping its sovereign credit rating at Aa3, though the outlook remains negative. Moody's warned that slowing economic growth, widening fiscal deficits, rising financing costs, and social protests could hinder fiscal consolidation. France's fiscal deficit is expected to reach 5.4% of GDP this year, with the government aiming to reduce it to 5% by 2027. Uncertainty remains over whether the budget will pass due to a lack of parliamentary majority support. On Friday, France's National Assembly rejected the revenue portion of the 2027 social security budget, and the main budget bill will continue to be reviewed next week. Pressure on France's bond market persists, with government bond yields rising sharply this month—among the highest increases in developed economies—and reaching their highest level in 24 years. The yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds widened to 178 basis points on Thursday from 85 basis points in early September. France was also recently downgraded by Scope, while Morningstar DBRS revised its outlook to negative, and S&P is scheduled to update its rating on November 27. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barak said in an interview with Israel's Channel 12 that strikes against Iran could occur over the weekend. "Could an attack happen this weekend? Of course, it's possible," he said. He noted that President Trump has clearly expressed a willingness to reach an agreement and hopes to see the Iranian regime change its policies, but does not seek regime change. When asked about this, Trump responded, "He's a very influential person, I think," and added, "If that's the case, I have no knowledge of it."