Philippine core inflation rises to 4.4% in June, keeping BSP on track for August 25-bp hike
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Philippine core inflation accelerated to a near three-year high, signaling broad second-round price pressures despite easing headline CPI. Analysts increasingly expect further BSP tightening (potentially 25–50 bp), with upside risks from wage hikes, infrastructure-driven demand, renewed energy shocks, and El Niño-related food supply disruptions. The hawkish policy bias supports higher regional rates and tighter financial conditions, weighing on risk appetite across emerging-market assets.
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Philippine core inflation accelerated to 4.4% in June, the fastest pace in nearly three years, pointing to broader price pass-through from energy shocks. Analysts broadly expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to raise rates by another 25 basis points at its August policy meeting, with total additional tightening for the year potentially reaching 50 bps. While headline inflation has eased, sticky core inflation alongside the National Capital Region minimum wage hike, faster infrastructure spending and a possible strong El Niño are seen adding to near- to mid-term price pressures. The BSP has said it will keep a hawkish stance to anchor inflation expectations.
