Ed Yardeni Lifts Estimated Probability of Major US Stock Market Downturn to 35% as Oil Prices Climb

On March 13, 2026, Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said he now assigns a 35% probability to a sharp US stock market decline as the conflict in the Middle East continues and oil prices rise. He noted that investors are still buying dips but warned that past oil shocks have often preceded recessions and bear markets, while WTI crude trades near $92.22 and the S&P 500 sits at 6,775.79.