Bitcoin has moved back above $73,000 for the first time since early February, with on-chain analyst Ali Martinez suggesting the move could evolve into a relief rally. Spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly absorbed about $776 million in BTC last week and roughly $789 million since the week starting March 2, helping to support the price near $73,200. Martinez notes that on-chain resistance looks relatively light between $72,000 and $81,000, with stronger supply clusters only emerging around $83,307 and $84,569.

Bitcoin climbed to a new monthly high above $73,000 after initially dropping to $63,000 when USA and Israel launched a military operation against Iran on Saturday. The price has since recovered more than $10,000, with analysts pointing to aggressive whale buying and a strong breakout, while warning that a fall below roughly $71,500–$72,000 could signal renewed weakness.

On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley submitted an amended S-1 to the SEC for its proposed bitcoin exchange-traded product, designating Coinbase Custody and Bank of New York Mellon as fund custodians. The filing also assigns BNY Mellon several administrative roles and appoints Coinbase as prime broker, as the trust aims to mirror the spot price of bitcoin.

Bitcoin climbed to a monthly peak near $73,019 during the latest Wall Street open, but technical signals suggest the bear market risk remains. Analyst Keith Alan highlighted that a weekly death cross between the 21-week and 100-week moving averages is likely to print next week, which could precede another leg down unless a strong bullish catalyst emerges.

On March 4, Morgan Stanley updated its Form S-1 for the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, designating Coinbase Custody and BNY Mellon as its key custodial partners. The bank plans to run the spot Bitcoin ETF similarly to a traditional ETF structure, using cold storage for Bitcoin and providing custody insurance while sharing some liabilities with customers.

Bitcoin climbed to $71,928, marking its strongest level in nearly a month before easing to around $71,343 with a 5.62% daily gain. After sliding to $63,019 on Saturday, the rebound was supported by more than $680 million of inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Monday and Tuesday. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino praised the green price action, while longtime critic Peter Schiff described the move above $71,000 as a "head fake" and reiterated his preference for gold and silver.

According to analyst Lisa N Edwards, Bitcoin's historical pattern memory and Fibonacci retracement behavior suggest this cycle may not bottom until prices drop below $40,000. Her chart-based study compares past cycle lows at the 0.786 and 0.86 retracement levels with the current structure, outlining potential downside zones between roughly $39,000 and $31,000 if the assumed October 2025 peak holds as the true high. Deeper targets such as a return to $20,000 are viewed in this framework as a break from Bitcoin's prior cycle dynamics rather than a continuation of the established pattern.

Bitcoin's long-term price pattern, based on a nine-year rising channel, remains intact and now points to a key support region near $60,000. A chart shared on March 4 by Trader Tardigrade shows BTC repeatedly moving between the channel's boundaries since 2017, with past rebounds from the lower band leading to strong rallies. With Bitcoin recently trading around $71,368.32 and already pushing above the channel again, the model sketches a potential overshoot range between about $170,000 and $600,000, though such projections rely on historical behavior and are not guaranteed.