Fed Rate Path and QT End Create First Net-Positive Liquidity Since Early 2022

The Federal Reserve's rate trajectory for 2025 shows a 25-basis-point cut in December, bringing the federal funds rate to approximately 3.5%-3.75%, with forward curves projecting at least three additional cuts through 2026 to around 3%, Delphi Digital reports. Quantitative tightening concluded on December 1, while the Treasury General Account is planned for gradual reduction and the Overnight Reverse Repurchase facility has been fully depleted. These factors have produced the first net-positive liquidity environment since early 2022, with SOFR and the federal funds rate retreating to the high-3% range and real rates declining from 2023-2024 peaks in a controlled manner. The research firm noted this shift from policy headwinds to moderate tailwinds in 2026 favors long-duration assets, large-cap equities, gold, and digital assets supported by structural demand.