Gold hits $4,878/oz as safe-haven demand remains firm

Gold rose to $4,878 per ounce on Friday, the highest level since March, notching a fourth straight weekly gain even as broader risk sentiment improved on optimism around an Iran ceasefire. The metal is up 41.64% over the past 12 months and 0.93% over the past four weeks, reinforcing one of 2026's strongest multi-asset runs. Support remains largely structural: renewed U.S.-China tariff friction, a softer dollar, lingering inflation concerns, and increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates later this year. CME FedWatch shows about a 68% probability of at least one rate cut before year-end. JPMorgan Global Research expects gold to reach $5,000/oz by Q4 2026, with $6,000/oz possible over a longer horizon. The bank projects combined investor and central-bank demand to average 585 tonnes per quarter in 2026. Silver rallied alongside gold, jumping to $82.52/oz and gaining 4.74% on Friday. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has recorded steady weekly inflows since February.