Bitcoin is trading above $100,000 while U.S. housing starts decline and the S&P 500 shows signs of correction. The cryptocurrency's ability to maintain support while traditional markets weaken will determine whether it establishes a higher-low structure or follows equities toward the $90,000–$95,000 zone.

Bitcoin is trading close to its $142,000 fair value according to the power law model, positioning the asset for potential upside. Long-term holders and miners continue accumulating despite recent volatility, while institutional forecasts remain mixed with end-2025 projections ranging from $120,000 to $180,000.

Bitcoin's market share has fallen 5.13% since May to 59.90%, according to TradingView data. Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland views the declining dominance as a possible precursor to an altcoin rally, though CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index remains at 28 out of 100, within Bitcoin Season territory.

Bitcoin's current bull run could conclude by late 2025, analyst Benjamin Cowen says, drawing on historical four-year cycles that peaked after U.S. presidential elections in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Bitcoin dominance has climbed to approximately 66%, indicating capital consolidation around the leading asset. Cowen sees the 50-week moving average near $100,000 as a key threshold that, if broken, would signal the bull phase is ending.

Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value ratio has dropped to 1.8, its lowest level in seven months. The threshold has historically indicated potential undervaluation zones. Data show miner confidence rising alongside network activity growth, suggesting accumulation may be strengthening despite recent price volatility.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, explained that sovereign governments consistently favor gold over Bitcoin, while individuals increasingly embrace cryptocurrency for personal autonomy. He noted that central bank officials face minimal career risk when acquiring gold, whereas buying Bitcoin carries reputational exposure if prices decline sharply. Hayes attributed every major Bitcoin bull run to large-scale money printing by the U.S. and China, and noted that central banks began accumulating gold after the U.S. froze Russia's reserves in February 2022.

Large movements from dormant Bitcoin addresses have sparked speculation that early holders are liquidating. On-chain analyst Willy Woo argues the data lacks context: many transactions involve security upgrades, institutional custody transfers, or treasury restructuring rather than outright sales.

Bitcoin long-term holders have been selling more than 1,000 BTC per hour since early 2025, according to on-chain data from Capriole Investments. The cryptocurrency currently trades nearly 19% below its October all-time high of $126,000. Market analysts remain divided on whether the selling pressure represents normal bull-cycle consolidation or signals a deeper correction driven by large-holder distribution.