Bitcoin Rejected at $74,000 as Onchain Metrics Show No Structural Bottom Yet

Bitcoin briefly rallied 4% on Friday to retest the $74,000 resistance before pulling back to around $72,215, CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom said. In her onchain assessment, Sunny notes the 6–12 month holder cohort is largely underwater with a Realized Price near $100,000, the MVRV ratio sits at 1.2 instead of the sub‑1.0 levels often seen at cyclical lows, and long‑term holders with more than two years' holding time make up only about 15% of Realized Cap versus the 20% she views as supportive for a durable floor. She outlines two possible bottoming paths: a "Black Swan" style sharp liquidation‑driven drop that could set a floor within one to two months, or a "Great Boring" phase in which BTC trades between $60,000 and $80,000 and the bottoming process stretches into late 2026 or early 2027. While describing the current area as a "Value Bottom" favorable for dollar‑cost averaging, Sunny argues a true "Structural Bottom" has not yet formed and expects continued volatility in the $60,000 to $70,000 band.