Q2 Crypto Rally Thesis Faces Macro and Geopolitical Risks After Q1 Drawdown

Crypto markets are weighing whether Q2 can repeat 2025's strong performance after this year's roughly 20% drop so far and a total market cap still down about 18%. In 2025's cycle, the total crypto market cap gained 23.4% in Q2 (about $640 billion), while Bitcoin rose 30% after a Q1 correction. Fresh inflation signals, risk-off reactions, and geopolitical shocks are now testing whether that resilience can hold.