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Ripple CTO Tells XRP Holders They're "Fooling Themselves" as Rising Wedge Forms and Spot ETF Inflows Grow
XRP held at $1.4349 on April 25, up 0.08%, continuing to trade within a rising wedge that has been developing since the February low near $1.20. The 20-day EMA at $1.4066 is the closest support level as the price compresses under the pattern's upper boundary.
Chart signals remain mixed. The wedge has capped advances near $1.55 through late April, while momentum indicators lean constructive: the MACD signal line sits at 0.0176 above zero, the histogram remains green, and the MACD line at 0.0055 is curling higher toward a bullish cross. Moving averages are split, with the 20-day ($1.4066) and 50-day ($1.4154) EMAs just below spot and acting as near-term support. Overhead resistance remains heavier at the 100-day EMA ($1.5313) and 200-day EMA ($1.7720). Any breakout through the wedge ceiling near $1.55 would likely need to clear the 100-day EMA almost immediately to carry weight on the daily timeframe.
Key levels for April 26:
- 20-day EMA support: $1.4066
- 50-day EMA support: $1.4154
- Current price: $1.4349
- Wedge upper boundary: $1.5500
- 100-day EMA resistance: $1.5313
- 200-day EMA resistance: $1.7720
Spot ETF flows continued to build. XRP spot ETFs recorded $6.44M of net inflows on April 24, following $3.89M on April 23 and $2.42M on April 22. Cumulative net inflows across five products have reached $1.29B, with total net assets at $1.10B, equivalent to about 1.23% of XRP's market cap. April's strongest single-day inflow was $17.11M on April 15.
Market data cited by fiatleak also pointed to declining exchange reserves alongside ongoing accumulation, suggesting demand is not limited to institutions buying via ETFs. Despite persistent inflows, price has largely remained rangebound between $1.30 and $1.45, a setup consistent with a volatility squeeze rather than a clear directional trend.
Ripple CTO David Schwartz added another catalyst by pushing back on long-running community narratives. Posting on X, Schwartz said many Ripple partnerships are covered by NDAs, but warned that treating confidentiality as proof of an imminent, major event amounts to investors "fooling themselves." He acknowledged Ripple has relationships with central banks, both announced and unannounced, but rejected claims that central banks will back their currencies with XRP, calling that idea a conspiracy theory.
April 26 outlook:
- Upside scenario: XRP holds the 20- and 50-day EMAs and breaks above the wedge ceiling near $1.55, with a daily close clearing the 100-day EMA at $1.5313. Sustained spot ETF inflows above $5M per day, combined with declining exchange reserves, would reinforce the move. If the breakout holds, the 200-day EMA at $1.7720 becomes the next major target.
- Downside scenario: The rising wedge resolves lower, with XRP breaking below the 20-day EMA at $1.4066. Focus would shift to the $1.30–$1.35 support zone highlighted by onchain data. A move into that area without stronger ETF inflows would put the February low near $1.20 back on the radar.
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