On January 16, 2026, Ark Invest's Cathie Wood argued that Bitcoin is a superior scarce asset to gold due to its mathematically fixed supply. She cited gold's 166% rise alongside a 1.8% annualized supply increase, versus Bitcoin's 360% gain with 1.3% annualized supply growth, and noted BTC's correlations to gold (0.14) and bonds (0.06).

On January 16, 2026, Bitcoin was consolidating near $95,000 and trading closer to $94,000 after failing to maintain strength above a key resistance-turned-support area. The recent stall in upside momentum and compressed volatility has led traders to reassess short‑term structure, even as the broader bullish trend and expectations for a potential push toward $100,000 remain intact. Key levels between $92,000 and $96,000 are now seen as crucial in determining whether the market resumes its advance or extends its consolidation phase.

According to on‑chain analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin’s short‑term holder realized price sits near $102,000, with spot trading below that mark. On January 16, 2026, trader Merlijn The Trader highlighted a potential double bottom and said a clean break above $102,000 implies a move toward $110,000, while holding around $95,500 maintains structure and a drop under $87,500 invalidates.

Bitcoin fell to its deepest historical discount against gold on Friday in 2026, as the BTC/XAU Z-score dropped below minus 2 standard deviations. This extreme undervaluation level has previously coincided with major Bitcoin bottoms, including a roughly 150% price rally after a similar signal in late 2022, and has some analysts expecting BTC to strongly outperform gold if past patterns repeat.

On 16 January 2026, Justin Bons, founder and CIO of Cyber Capital, presented an analysis warning that Bitcoin could face a structural breakdown in roughly 7 to 11 years as halving events reduce miner incentives. He argues that declining miner revenue, limited fee scalability, capacity bottlenecks, and rigid governance could make profitable attacks and severe congestion more likely as block rewards trend toward zero.

Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has argued that Bitcoin may have topped out in 2025 as gold surged and oil slumped, signaling what he describes as a historic gold-oil disparity. Bitcoin, which reached a peak of $126,198.07 in October 2025 and has since dropped as low as $84,000, was trading around $95,076.40 with daily volume sliding and price still capped below the $100,000 mark.

On Jan. 16, Jefferies' Christopher Wood removed a 10% Bitcoin allocation, citing quantum-computing tail risk. In contrast, ARK Invest's Cathie Wood points to weak correlations, with ARK reporting 0.14 versus gold and 0.06 versus bonds. Grayscale calls quantum fears a 2026 "red herring," while Bitwise's Andre Dragosch highlights today's vast computational gap.

Analyst Don Wedge, with interpretation from Gigabrain, sees a rising wedge near $94,000, with $92,000 as key support and potential downside to $86,000. Coinglass notes whale accumulation at $90,000–$92,000 and sell walls around $95,000, while Glassnode places the Short‑Term Holder cost basis at $98,300, a level watched for trend validation.