Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $85.85 million of net inflows on June 12, with all 12 tracked products avoiding net outflows. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounted for $57.7 million of the total, while spot ethereum ETFs posted a $4.95 million net outflow for a fourth consecutive day.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $85.85 million on June 12 after five straight days of outflows, while Bitcoin traded around $63,750 after a 1.30% 24-hour rise. Trading volume slid 16% to $24.07 billion, even as derivatives metrics pointed to a more bullish tilt. BTC is nearing a key barrier at $63,900, with a daily close above $64,000 framed as the trigger for a potential move toward $69,500.

On June 12, 2026, Kalshi Crypto said its prediction market was pricing a 69% probability that Bitcoin touches $50,000 before it reaches $100,000. The reading is framed as a sentiment snapshot between two widely watched levels, while the contract odds can shift quickly as price, liquidity, and positioning change.

Bitcoin is still facing heavy selling after breaking down from a rising channel and losing the $70K psychological level, even as buyers have defended the $60K area so far. Analysts outline resistance at $65K–$68K and $72K–$74K, while a failure to hold $60K could reopen downside toward the $51K support cluster. On-chain data also shows stress, with the UTXOs in Profit (%) metric falling to roughly 50%.

Glassnode said on-chain indicators suggest speculative demand for Bitcoin exposure via traditional market vehicles is weakening, with activity falling across spot ETFs and bitcoin treasury companies. The firm cited a drop in the 30-day SMA of U.S. spot ETF volume from $4.4B per day in October 2025 to about $0.96B currently, alongside a decline in treasury-company trading from $34.2B per day in December 2025 to $17.4B now. It also noted spot demand has softened as BTC traded near $62,500 at publication time, down 22% from $80,900 a month earlier.

Italy's 2026 Budget Law raises the substitutive tax on crypto capital gains to 33% starting January 1, 2026, up from 26% in 2025. The same framework keeps euro-denominated MiCAR-compliant EMT tokens taxed at 26% and sets up a Permanent Supervisory Committee on crypto-assets. It also ties crypto holdings to ISEE means-testing and introduces updated reporting steps alongside DAC8-related data flows.

On June 13, 2026, Bitcoin traded around $64,200 as derivative data pointed to a broad leverage reset, with open interest reduced from above $90B to near $50B and funding close to neutral. Short-term holders remained under pressure, with BTC below the STH realized price near $75,000, implying roughly 15% unrealized losses for recent buyers. The setup describes heavy stress among newer holders but does not, by itself, confirm a market bottom.

Bitcoin traded above $64,000 on Saturday, briefly clearing $64,200 intraday and standing more than 8% above its June low near $59,000. The move followed $85.9 million of net inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs on Friday and market attention on Pakistan's prime minister saying a peace agreement is closer than ever, with finalisation expected within 24 hours.