U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $85.85 million on June 12 after five straight days of outflows, while Bitcoin traded around $63,750 after a 1.30% 24-hour rise. Trading volume slid 16% to $24.07 billion, even as derivatives metrics pointed to a more bullish tilt. BTC is nearing a key barrier at $63,900, with a daily close above $64,000 framed as the trigger for a potential move toward $69,500.

On June 12, 2026, Kalshi Crypto said its prediction market was pricing a 69% probability that Bitcoin touches $50,000 before it reaches $100,000. The reading is framed as a sentiment snapshot between two widely watched levels, while the contract odds can shift quickly as price, liquidity, and positioning change.

Bitcoin is still facing heavy selling after breaking down from a rising channel and losing the $70K psychological level, even as buyers have defended the $60K area so far. Analysts outline resistance at $65K–$68K and $72K–$74K, while a failure to hold $60K could reopen downside toward the $51K support cluster. On-chain data also shows stress, with the UTXOs in Profit (%) metric falling to roughly 50%.

Glassnode said on-chain indicators suggest speculative demand for Bitcoin exposure via traditional market vehicles is weakening, with activity falling across spot ETFs and bitcoin treasury companies. The firm cited a drop in the 30-day SMA of U.S. spot ETF volume from $4.4B per day in October 2025 to about $0.96B currently, alongside a decline in treasury-company trading from $34.2B per day in December 2025 to $17.4B now. It also noted spot demand has softened as BTC traded near $62,500 at publication time, down 22% from $80,900 a month earlier.

Italy's 2026 Budget Law raises the substitutive tax on crypto capital gains to 33% starting January 1, 2026, up from 26% in 2025. The same framework keeps euro-denominated MiCAR-compliant EMT tokens taxed at 26% and sets up a Permanent Supervisory Committee on crypto-assets. It also ties crypto holdings to ISEE means-testing and introduces updated reporting steps alongside DAC8-related data flows.

On June 13, 2026, Bitcoin traded around $64,200 as derivative data pointed to a broad leverage reset, with open interest reduced from above $90B to near $50B and funding close to neutral. Short-term holders remained under pressure, with BTC below the STH realized price near $75,000, implying roughly 15% unrealized losses for recent buyers. The setup describes heavy stress among newer holders but does not, by itself, confirm a market bottom.

Bitcoin traded above $64,000 on Saturday, briefly clearing $64,200 intraday and standing more than 8% above its June low near $59,000. The move followed $85.9 million of net inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs on Friday and market attention on Pakistan's prime minister saying a peace agreement is closer than ever, with finalisation expected within 24 hours.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Saturday that the U.S. and Iran agreed on a peace-deal framework and that Pakistan expects an electronic signing within 24 hours that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire by 60 days. Iran’s Foreign Ministry disputed the Sunday signing timeline, while oil prices moved, with U.S. July crude futures at $84 per barrel and Brent around $87.