CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju reports that retail traders have largely exited Bitcoin, with their funds moving into stocks, gold, and silver during the recent metals rally. At the same time, large investors and institutions are accumulating Bitcoin, supported by over $900 million of spot ETF inflows in early January and a Fear and Greed Index reading of 61 following the October 2024 liquidation event.

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin whale addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC have increased their balances by 46,000 BTC this week, pushing the one-year net change back into positive territory for the first time since November 2025. In contrast, dolphin addresses with 100–1,000 BTC, including ETFs and treasuries, have cut holdings to 589,000 BTC from a peak of 972,000 BTC, signaling a prolonged cooling in demand.

On January 15, 2026, Bitcoin paused after a multi-week climb, trading around $96.6K and posting a small daily pullback. The stall occurred beneath the $100K mark and just under $97K, as risk rotated and leverage reset. Data cited in the article indicates netflows stayed negative and open interest was elevated without sharp spikes.

Arthur Hayes said in his essay "Frowny Cloud" that Bitcoin underperformed in 2025 despite an all-time high above $126,000, citing a contraction in US dollar credit. He expects 2026 to bring a rebound in liquidity via Federal Reserve balance-sheet expansion and Reserve Management Purchases, estimating at least $40 billion per month, and disclosed leveraged BTC exposure through Strategy and Metaplanet.

Bitcoin is trading close to $96,000 while sizable US spot ETF inflows and options dealers’ long gamma positioning are pulling price in opposite directions. Recent flows of roughly $1.06 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs since Jan. 8 and compressed volatility near 32% realized and 33% implied have kept price confined around the $90,000–$94,000 band, with key levels now highlighted near $91,500 on the downside and just under $97,800 on the upside.

Bitcoin's latest price upswing has been closely tied to increased spot buying on Coinbase, with metrics such as the Adjusted Coinbase Premium and Cumulative Volume Delta pointing to sustained accumulation rather than derivatives-driven speculation. Trader Alex Krüger notes that BTC still faces a key technical hurdle around the 50-week moving average near $101,420, while the upcoming January 15, 2026 markup of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in the Senate Banking Committee could help reduce regulatory uncertainty and unlock more institutional participation.

At Thursday's Wall Street open, Bitcoin fell below $96,000 amid headlines suggesting easing U.S.–Iran tensions. TradingView data showed a low at $95,563, with traders watching $94,000 as near-term support alongside the 200‑day EMA around $99,555 and a weekly close target near $93,500.

In early 2026, Bitcoin reclaimed $96,000. According to Glassnode's Week On-chain report, the move has run into a $93K–$110K long-term holder cost basis band formed during April to July 2025, while $98.3K is highlighted as the short-term holder line-in-the-sand. The note also warns that losing the True Market Mean near ~$81k could tilt risk toward deeper downside.