Bernstein: Bitcoin Selloff Reflects Four-Year Cycle Peak Concerns

Bitcoin has declined approximately 25% from its record high of around $126,000 reached on October 6, representing a short-term correction rather than a major downtrend, Bernstein analysts said. Analyst Gautam Chhugani noted in a Monday client report that the decline reflects investor anxiety over the historical four-year cycle pattern—which saw peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021—with many selling early during fourth-quarter weakness in anticipation of a 2025 repeat. Over the past six months, investors holding Bitcoin for at least one year sold approximately 340,000 BTC (about $38 billion), while roughly $34 billion flowed into spot ETFs and corporate treasuries, largely absorbing the selling pressure. The analysts view the market as part of a multi-year trend defined by institutional participation and moderate cyclical pullbacks, monitoring whether Bitcoin can establish a bottom around $80,000—a level seen after last year's U.S. presidential election.