Bitcoin 365-day MVRV returns to late-2022 levels, signaling rare valuation divergence

Bitcoin's 365-day MVRV—an on-chain metric tracking whether an asset trades above or below its zero-sum baseline—now sits near levels last seen in the final week of 2022. After turning sharply negative following the FTX collapse, BTC rallied 67% over the next three months, a pattern typical when average returns fall well below historical norms. Today's macroeconomic environment and polarized views on Strategy's aggressive accumulation differ from conditions three years ago, yet MVRV readings have historically signaled future price direction regardless of broader circumstances. The indicator is now flashing a divergence not seen in over three years, prompting analysts to watch the referenced chart closely.