February US CPI Eases But Fed Faces March 17–18 Decision Amid Oil Shock and Weak Jobs

February’s US CPI data showed headline inflation rising 0.3% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, while core CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 2.5% annually, keeping hopes for rate cuts alive. Since the report was released on March 11, payroll losses, major downward jobs revisions, and an Iran-linked oil supply shock have reshaped the outlook. The Fed heads into its March 17–18 meeting balancing softer inflation data against a weaker labor market and sharply higher crude prices.