Bitcoin climbed to a monthly peak near $73,019 during the latest Wall Street open, but technical signals suggest the bear market risk remains. Analyst Keith Alan highlighted that a weekly death cross between the 21-week and 100-week moving averages is likely to print next week, which could precede another leg down unless a strong bullish catalyst emerges.

On March 4, Morgan Stanley updated its Form S-1 for the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, designating Coinbase Custody and BNY Mellon as its key custodial partners. The bank plans to run the spot Bitcoin ETF similarly to a traditional ETF structure, using cold storage for Bitcoin and providing custody insurance while sharing some liabilities with customers.

Bitcoin climbed to $71,928, marking its strongest level in nearly a month before easing to around $71,343 with a 5.62% daily gain. After sliding to $63,019 on Saturday, the rebound was supported by more than $680 million of inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Monday and Tuesday. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino praised the green price action, while longtime critic Peter Schiff described the move above $71,000 as a "head fake" and reiterated his preference for gold and silver.

According to analyst Lisa N Edwards, Bitcoin's historical pattern memory and Fibonacci retracement behavior suggest this cycle may not bottom until prices drop below $40,000. Her chart-based study compares past cycle lows at the 0.786 and 0.86 retracement levels with the current structure, outlining potential downside zones between roughly $39,000 and $31,000 if the assumed October 2025 peak holds as the true high. Deeper targets such as a return to $20,000 are viewed in this framework as a break from Bitcoin's prior cycle dynamics rather than a continuation of the established pattern.

Bitcoin's long-term price pattern, based on a nine-year rising channel, remains intact and now points to a key support region near $60,000. A chart shared on March 4 by Trader Tardigrade shows BTC repeatedly moving between the channel's boundaries since 2017, with past rebounds from the lower band leading to strong rallies. With Bitcoin recently trading around $71,368.32 and already pushing above the channel again, the model sketches a potential overshoot range between about $170,000 and $600,000, though such projections rely on historical behavior and are not guaranteed.

Bitcoin briefly advanced to a one-month peak near $72,000 after earlier falling below $64,000 during the escalating conflict involving the USA, Israel, and Iran. Traders now debate whether a sustained move above $70,000–$71,500 could extend the rally toward $74,000–$80,000 or if failure to hold that area might send BTC back to the $65,000–$66,000 support.

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio stated on the All-In Podcast published on March 3 that Bitcoin is unlikely to replace gold as the leading alternative form of money. He argued that gold’s long-standing role in monetary history, its central bank reserves, and its scale make it structurally different from Bitcoin, which he sees as smaller and more exposed to technological, regulatory, and market risks. Dalio also noted Bitcoin’s high correlation with technology stocks and maintained that gold remains the most established non-debt-based form of money.

Between March 3 and March 4, Bitcoin rebounded from recent weakness and climbed back to about $71,000 after repeatedly failing to hold above $67,000 and nearly dropping below $60,000. Veteran economist Peter Schiff called the move a "head fake" and urged traders to sell BTC in favor of gold and silver, even as major institutions maintain long-term price targets of $100,000 to $150,000 for 2026. At the same time, gold and silver themselves have seen sharp swings, and some market participants expect both Bitcoin and precious metals to face heightened volatility.