Arthur Hayes said in his essay "Frowny Cloud" that Bitcoin underperformed in 2025 despite an all-time high above $126,000, citing a contraction in US dollar credit. He expects 2026 to bring a rebound in liquidity via Federal Reserve balance-sheet expansion and Reserve Management Purchases, estimating at least $40 billion per month, and disclosed leveraged BTC exposure through Strategy and Metaplanet.

Bitcoin is trading close to $96,000 while sizable US spot ETF inflows and options dealers’ long gamma positioning are pulling price in opposite directions. Recent flows of roughly $1.06 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs since Jan. 8 and compressed volatility near 32% realized and 33% implied have kept price confined around the $90,000–$94,000 band, with key levels now highlighted near $91,500 on the downside and just under $97,800 on the upside.

Bitcoin's latest price upswing has been closely tied to increased spot buying on Coinbase, with metrics such as the Adjusted Coinbase Premium and Cumulative Volume Delta pointing to sustained accumulation rather than derivatives-driven speculation. Trader Alex Krüger notes that BTC still faces a key technical hurdle around the 50-week moving average near $101,420, while the upcoming January 15, 2026 markup of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in the Senate Banking Committee could help reduce regulatory uncertainty and unlock more institutional participation.

At Thursday's Wall Street open, Bitcoin fell below $96,000 amid headlines suggesting easing U.S.–Iran tensions. TradingView data showed a low at $95,563, with traders watching $94,000 as near-term support alongside the 200‑day EMA around $99,555 and a weekly close target near $93,500.

In early 2026, Bitcoin reclaimed $96,000. According to Glassnode's Week On-chain report, the move has run into a $93K–$110K long-term holder cost basis band formed during April to July 2025, while $98.3K is highlighted as the short-term holder line-in-the-sand. The note also warns that losing the True Market Mean near ~$81k could tilt risk toward deeper downside.

Prediction markets now assign a 59.4% chance that Bitcoin will be at or above $100,000 by Jan. 31. A separate chart points to a repeat rebound setup, with price near $96,562 and moving-average ribbon supports around $92,113 and $90,083. Traders are watching whether the breakout holds near the round-number level.

On January 15, 2026, Bitcoin broke above a descending structure after weeks of tight consolidation, trading at $96,820.93 and up 1.8% on the day, 7.2% weekly, 11.3% monthly. Analysts cite an ascending triangle toward $100,000, while large wallets added more than 32,693 BTC since January 10 and key support sits at $94,000–$95,000.

On Jan. 14, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $843.62 million, reversing a week of outflows in a single day and lifting cumulative net inflows above $58.1 billion. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust added $648.39 million and pushed its net assets beyond $76 billion, while total spot ETF assets reached $128.04 billion, or 6.56% of Bitcoin's market cap. BTC briefly traded at $96,951 as institutional demand strengthened and some market participants positioned for potential Q1 CPI relief and rate cuts.