On February 25, 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly absorbed around 21,000 BTC valued at $1.45 billion, marking the first notable holdings increase since mid-October 2025. Over the February 6 to March 2 period, retail inflows to Binance fell by about $5 billion, while Bitcoin’s price dropped nearly 15% in February and traded just above $66,000. Analysts note that most investors who bought within the last two years are now in loss positions, which they suggest could set the stage for institutional accumulation as retail participants pull back.

Fold, a Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin financial services firm, has paid off $66.3 million in convertible debt, reducing the risk of future share dilution. The company also released 521 BTC previously pledged as collateral, aiming to use its improved balance sheet flexibility to grow its Bitcoin rewards products, including a planned credit card.

Bitcoin traded sideways after a sharp pullback, with its price dropping nearly 7% over the past week as it hovered around $68,880. On-chain analyst Willy Woo expects only a brief consolidation and warns the broader bear trend could extend until Q4 2026, with a typical bottom near $45,000 and potential downside to $30,000 in a severe macro shock. Other analysts pointed to leveraged whale losses, a bearish flag pattern with risk toward $45,000 below $63,000, and correlations with sliding U.S. stock futures amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

On 2 March 2026, Binance derivatives data showed open interest dropping from 130,800 BTC to 97,680 BTC, a decline of about 25% alongside an estimated leverage ratio near 0.146. Bitcoin is trading close to $69,000, while aggregate open interest across exchanges hovers around $20.81 billion and key liquidation zones cluster between $62,000–$63,000 and $69,000–$70,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recently posted a $506 million net inflow, and Binance's BTC futures open interest of roughly 129,080 BTC now exceeds that of CME.

After the Wall Street session opened on Monday, Bitcoin climbed toward $70,000, gaining more than 5% and reaching its highest level since Feb. 25. The move followed a stronger-than-expected US manufacturing PMI reading above 50, which signaled renewed industrial expansion and helped overshadow worries linked to Middle East tensions, even as US equities struggled.

Bitcoin's price surged from just above $65,000 to nearly $69,000 within about an hour, wiping out roughly $80 million in short positions. Major altcoins also rallied, with ETH reclaiming $2,000, SOL approaching $90, and XRP and BNB gaining over 4% in the same period. The sharp move comes amid rising geopolitical tensions following US and Israeli strikes on Iran and ahead of a March 2, 2026 speech in which US President Trump is set to address the Iran conflict.

Strategy expanded its bitcoin treasury by 3,015 BTC, financed through a weekly capital raise combining $7.1M from STRC preferred stock and $229.9M from MSTR common shares. The firm paid about $204.1M at roughly $67,700 per BTC, bringing total holdings to 720,737 BTC at an average purchase price of $75,985.

Bitcoin is trading close to the $60,000 zone, where the average cost basis of investors who entered the market 18 to 24 months ago is now being tested. According to CryptoQuant, many of these midterm holders have slipped into unrealized losses, while longer-term investors remain in profit, creating conditions that have historically preceded major cycle turning points and potential price resets.