On Nov. 21, 2026, onchain research suggested Bitcoin could still be in a bear market despite a 21% price rise since late November 2025. BTC has bounced from lows near $80,500 to about $97,900, but remains under its 365-day moving average at $101,000, a level analysts view as critical for confirming a more durable recovery. The study also highlighted rising exchange inflows around 39,000 BTC on a 7‑day basis, indicating potential selling pressure ahead.

Bitcoin is approaching $100,000 again, but multiple technical hurdles are stacking up. The 20‑week moving average at $100,000, a potential 23‑week/50‑week death cross near the same area, and the 200‑day average just above $99,000 form a three‑tier barrier. Since October, price has struggled at this zone amid higher volatility and lighter volume.

On January 16, 2026, Bloomberg reported that Jefferies' global equity strategist Christopher Wood removed Bitcoin after four years, eliminating a 10% allocation and shifting the exposure to physical gold and gold-mining stocks due to quantum-computing concerns. Researchers estimate around 30% of circulating BTC could face quantum exposure under certain conditions, while debate across the crypto sector highlights divergent views on timelines and mitigations.

Ark Invest has reiterated its 2030 Bitcoin outlook, projecting a price range between $300,000 and $1.5 million as spot ETFs and corporate treasuries increasingly allocate to BTC. Recent inflows of $1.7 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs alongside a bullish flag pattern above $95,000 keep a potential move toward $100,000 in focus, even as U.S. regulatory delays add short-term uncertainty.

On January 16, 2026, West Virginia introduced a bill to let the treasury allocate up to ten percent of state funds to Bitcoin and other inflation-hedge assets meeting a $750 billion market cap. Arizona is advancing separate measures to accept Bitcoin for taxes with instant USD conversion, and to permit certain public funds to hold up to ten percent in a Bitcoin reserve.

Bitcoin hovered near recent highs after briefly touching about $98,000 a day earlier, with the next move hinging on U.S. institutional demand. GugaOnChain flagged the Coinbase Premium Index: renewed buying could push BTC above $100,000, while neutrality favors a $90,000–$100,000 range. On January 16, the Fear and Greed Index hit 61 as whales added more than 32,000 BTC since January 10.

Chainalysis reports Iran's crypto ecosystem reaching $7.78 billion by 2025 as inflation, protests and internet shutdowns drive adoption. On-chain volumes increased and funds moved to self-custody, with withdrawal growth across several brackets. The report also notes IRGC-linked wallets received over $3 billion in 2025, highlighting dual use by citizens and the state.

On January 16 2026, Jefferies global head of equity strategy Christopher Wood disclosed that he has fully removed Bitcoin from his model portfolio, where it previously held a 10% weighting. Citing accelerating advances in quantum computing, he argued that potential attacks on Bitcoin's cryptographic security could undermine its role as a long-term store of value and digital alternative to gold. Wood shifted the former Bitcoin allocation into 5% gold and 5% gold-mining equities while industry experts warn that millions of BTC could be exposed to future quantum threats.