Bitcoin's current bull run could conclude by late 2025, analyst Benjamin Cowen says, drawing on historical four-year cycles that peaked after U.S. presidential elections in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Bitcoin dominance has climbed to approximately 66%, indicating capital consolidation around the leading asset. Cowen sees the 50-week moving average near $100,000 as a key threshold that, if broken, would signal the bull phase is ending.

Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value ratio has dropped to 1.8, its lowest level in seven months. The threshold has historically indicated potential undervaluation zones. Data show miner confidence rising alongside network activity growth, suggesting accumulation may be strengthening despite recent price volatility.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, explained that sovereign governments consistently favor gold over Bitcoin, while individuals increasingly embrace cryptocurrency for personal autonomy. He noted that central bank officials face minimal career risk when acquiring gold, whereas buying Bitcoin carries reputational exposure if prices decline sharply. Hayes attributed every major Bitcoin bull run to large-scale money printing by the U.S. and China, and noted that central banks began accumulating gold after the U.S. froze Russia's reserves in February 2022.

Large movements from dormant Bitcoin addresses have sparked speculation that early holders are liquidating. On-chain analyst Willy Woo argues the data lacks context: many transactions involve security upgrades, institutional custody transfers, or treasury restructuring rather than outright sales.

Bitcoin long-term holders have been selling more than 1,000 BTC per hour since early 2025, according to on-chain data from Capriole Investments. The cryptocurrency currently trades nearly 19% below its October all-time high of $126,000. Market analysts remain divided on whether the selling pressure represents normal bull-cycle consolidation or signals a deeper correction driven by large-holder distribution.

On-chain data indicates Bitcoin may be forming a price bottom after sustained selling pressure since mid-October. Four key metrics reveal weakening speculative short positions and increasing buying power, according to analysis by Sunny Mom on CryptoQuant. BTC currently trades around $102,510.

Bitcoin is trading at $102,289, consolidating within a three-day range between $101,000 and $103,000. The Bid-to-Ask Ratio has turned positive at 0.2 for the first time in months, while the Bitcoin Bubble Index stands at 13.46, well below the typical market top reading of 139. Data show long-term holders have increased selling activity over the past thirty days, though multiple on-chain metrics point toward building accumulation that could support upward momentum.

Long-inactive Bitcoin wallets have resumed activity in 2025, moving more than 1,000 BTC per hour, according to on-chain data. A notable transaction involved 3,600 BTC valued at approximately $372 million, with 500 BTC transferred to Kraken. Bitcoin currently trades around 19% below its October high of $126,000.