On December 24, 2025, Bitcoin underperformed other major assets as on-chain activity and buying participation continued to cool. BlackRock's constructive long-term stance coexists with investor concerns that measured institutional flows and thinning active addresses are restraining breakouts despite strength in equities and precious metals.

On December 22, 2025, Galaxy Digital researcher Alex Thorn said Bitcoin’s nominal all-time high of $126,000 equates to $99,848 when adjusted using 2020 dollars, leaving it just under the $100,000 threshold. Over the same period, U.S. inflation data indicates the dollar’s purchasing power has fallen by about 20%, while gold and silver have hit fresh records and some analysts warn of potentially higher inflation ahead.

On Friday, December 26, Bitcoin faces its largest options expiry, with more than $23 billion set to roll off. According to NoLimit and MartyParty, unwinding dealer hedges and high gamma between $86,000 and $110,000 could fuel sharp moves, while CryptoQuant highlights lingering $100,000 calls even as $85,000 put interest eases.

On December 22, 2025, Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn said Bitcoin's latest cycle top, when recalculated in 2020 dollars using US CPI data, reached about $99,848 rather than breaking the $100,000 mark. Since 2020, US inflation has eroded the dollar's purchasing power by roughly 20%, while a weaker Dollar Currency Index and gradual disinflation keep supporting the so-called debasement trade narrative. Market analyst Linh Tran added that Bitcoin's price remains highly sensitive to Federal Reserve policy expectations as inflation eases only slowly.

On 24 December 2025, analysts highlighted that Bitcoin’s subdued year-end price action, compressed volatility, and lack of a blow-off top resemble prior accumulation phases rather than cycle peaks. Macro data tied to the Financial Stress Index and declining exchange reserves indicate ongoing risk is not yet elevated while more BTC moves into long-term storage, suggesting the market may be quietly building a base instead of approaching a major crash. Some forecasts still allow for downside in 2026, but others see potential for a major advance, with targets up to $200,000.

In VanEck's 2026 outlook, David Schassler argues that Bitcoin's current underperformance versus the Nasdaq 100 Index could set it up to be a leading asset next year. He links the recent downturn to softer risk appetite and temporary liquidity pressure, while colleague Matthew Sigel says the four-year cycle remains intact after an early October 2025 peak. Market expert Ruslan Lienkha expects macroeconomic factors and corporate treasury allocations to be key drivers for BTC and ETH in 2026, alongside wider institutional participation as regulation advances.

Matador Technologies has been authorized to issue up to C$80 million, or about $58 million, in securities over the next 25 months to support a long-term Bitcoin-focused treasury strategy. The company aims to increase its holdings from roughly 175 BTC to 1,000 BTC by 2026 and ultimately target 1% of Bitcoin's total supply, while more than 190 publicly traded firms currently hold Bitcoin despite recent stock price declines.

Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn stated on Tuesday that Bitcoin’s all-time high above $126,000 in October equates to $99,848 when converted into 2020 dollars, leaving it just under the six-figure threshold. He based this figure on cumulative Consumer Price Index changes since 2020, as U.S. inflation has eroded the dollar’s purchasing power while the Dollar Currency Index has fallen 11% since the start of 2025.