Trader Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin's next rally depends on the U.S. government ending its shutdown and releasing liquidity. The Treasury General Account currently holds approximately $150 billion above its $850 billion target, creating a negative liquidity balance that will reverse when operations resume.

Bitcoin rose above $103,000 on Thursday following stronger-than-expected US economic reports. Services activity hit an eight-month high in October, while private payrolls increased by 42,000, exceeding forecasts. The data lifted equities and digital assets as risk sentiment improved across global markets.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 on November 5, 2025, triggering more than $1.7 billion in liquidations across cryptocurrency exchanges. Analysts say the decline resulted from excessive leverage unwinding rather than long-term investor selling. Market observers identify the $100,000 level as critical support, with on-chain data showing holders maintaining positions.

Tokyo-listed cryptocurrency treasury firm MetaPlanet raised $100 million using its Bitcoin holdings as collateral on November 6, 2025. The funds will support revenue-generating operations, share repurchases, and additional Bitcoin acquisitions. The company currently holds 30,823 BTC valued at approximately $3.51 billion, with the loan representing 3% of its total Bitcoin treasury.

Bitcoin has dropped below $100,000 as long-term holders sold approximately 400,000 BTC valued at $45 billion over the past month. The cryptocurrency declined 7.4% on Tuesday, extending total losses to over 20% from its recent peak. Unlike October's downturn driven by leverage liquidations, the current pressure stems from spot market selling by established investors.

Bitcoin has dropped below $104,000 and the 100-hour simple moving average, failing to hold above $105,000. The cryptocurrency declined to $98,900 before attempting a modest recovery. Bears remain active near $104,000, limiting upward momentum as the asset trades below key technical levels.

Galaxy Digital cut its Bitcoin year-end 2025 price target from $185,000 to $120,000, according to the firm's head of research Alex Thorn. The revision reflects increased leveraged liquidations and whale distributions exceeding 400,000 BTC. Japan's Metaplanet drew $100 million from its Bitcoin-backed credit facility to expand holdings, while Swiss custody startup Future raised $34.5 million in funding.

Bitcoin stabilized above $103,500 on Wednesday after briefly dropping below $104,000 the previous day. Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes maintains the bull cycle remains active despite a 27% decline over the past month. He cited potential Federal Reserve liquidity measures as a catalyst for renewed upside, though acknowledged uncertainty around timing given the ongoing US government shutdown.