Wall Street fell as AI-related stocks retreated, a move expected to weigh on the ASX at the open. Gold prices dropped 1.8% overnight, pressuring gold miners. Santos rose 3% after lifting its production outlook, while Healius fell 3.4% on a wider full-year net loss. Stockland jumped 13.7% after reporting a 20.2% increase in profit.

BHP said it will pay a record $12 billion dividend after copper prices hit new highs on rising demand from green energy, electric vehicles and AI data centres. The miner’s full-year shareholder return totalled $US8.7 billion, its biggest payout in four years. Following the announcement, BHP shares rose 3.5% in early trade, lifting its market value to A$325 billion and reinforcing its position as the ASX’s largest listed company.

A nationwide Telstra network outage knocked out V/Line’s communications, forcing about 100 regional trains in Victoria to stop running and triggering widespread delays. The disruption also affected access to Triple Zero, as Telstra handles the initial emergency call-taking before transferring callers to state and territory services. Victoria’s ambulance service reported pager and login problems that hampered coordination, while some lower-priority callers struggled to be connected to triage.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to change how it calculates the PCE inflation index in September, excluding some highly volatile service components. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has also signaled a preference for the Dallas Fed’s “trimmed mean,” which printed 2.4% in May versus 3.4% for official core PCE. If implemented, those shifts would systematically reduce reported inflation and strengthen market pricing for rate cuts in the second half of 2026.

Several high-end Melbourne suburbs including Blackburn, Beaumaris and Mont Albert recorded a 6.9% fall in house values over the June quarter, with some areas shedding more than $100,000 in three months. Units fell more sharply in places such as Murrumbeena, where the median value dropped 7.1% since March. Cotality attributed the downturn to rate rises and May budget changes affecting negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount, alongside weak consumer confidence. Melbourne’s median property value stands at $808,486, well below Sydney’s $1,265,608, and the market was described as vulnerable.

Australia’s corporate regulator has sued nonbank lender Oak Capital in the Federal Court, alleging it structured loans to avoid the National Credit Code and engaged in unconscionable conduct across 47 loans. Oak Capital entered liquidation in May 2026, pausing the court proceedings. ASIC said it intends to seek permission to resume the case. Oak Capital previously reported $700 million in funds under management, drawing renewed attention to compliance and credit risk in Australia’s nonbank lending sector.

After the US and Iran agreed a 60-day ceasefire in the Middle East, Brent crude fell from wartime highs near $US120 a barrel to about $US73 a barrel and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz largely resumed. However, mines Iran laid in the strait have yet to be cleared, Iran may later charge vessels for transiting the waterway, and insurance rates remain elevated at 3–8%. With refinery and strategic inventories heavily drawn down and China’s May crude imports down about 40% year on year, the market faces a mix of a short-term supply surge and a longer-term risk premium.