Into Sunday's weekly close, Bitcoin traded below its 200-week exponential moving average near $68,310, keeping that long-term trend line at risk of turning into resistance. Some traders warned that a candle close under this level could lock in bearish structure, while others pointed to potential support around $65,000–$60,000 and tracked gold and oil moves as possible triggers for a rebound.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, US nonfarm payrolls in February fell by 92,000, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, and earlier months were revised lower by 69,000, removing 161,000 jobs from the year’s starting picture. BLS has also applied an annual benchmark revision that cut March 2025 payroll levels by 862,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis, raising concerns that markets and Bitcoin traders have been reacting to a labor market that looked stronger in real time than in the finalized data. These shifts in employment figures are reshaping expectations for interest rates, financial conditions, and risk sentiment across assets.

Bitcoin has retreated under $70,000 amid persistent selling, with chart patterns still allowing room for the price to fall below $60,000. Technical work from multiple analysts points to a long‑term trend of progressively smaller bear market drawdowns, while the latest price structure appears similar to the 2022 bear phase with a possible move toward $50,000. One scenario projects a worst‑case 70% decline from a proposed 2025 peak around $126,080, which would imply levels near $37,000, though this is framed as a risk outline rather than a precise bottom target.

Analysts report that Bitcoin's 1-month RSI has fallen to levels last seen at the 2018 and 2022 bear market lows, while the Copper-to-Gold ratio sits in its longest downturn since Bitcoin's inception. On-chain data show the NUPL-MVRV Harmonic Composite at 0.33, above the roughly -0.5 readings seen at past capitulation points, suggesting sellers may not be fully exhausted. Rising cycle lows point to a maturing market, leaving Bitcoin in a late-stage consolidation where signals are aligning but a confirmed bottom is still unclear.

At a market price of $67,515, Bitcoin has declined 46.5% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198, leaving many corporate treasuries exposed to unrealized losses. Crypto analyst Charles Edwards reports that 77% of companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets are now underwater, a situation last seen in May 2022. Strategy, Michael Saylor's Bitcoin-focused company, holds 720,737 BTC bought for about $54.77 billion at an average of roughly $75,985 per coin and is currently facing significant paper losses as its stock price has dropped for eight consecutive months.

Bitcoin climbed to a one-month peak of $74,000 in early 2026 as on-chain data pointed to easing sell pressure and improving spot demand. According to CryptoQuant, apparent spot demand contraction narrowed from about -136,000 BTC at the start of 2026 to roughly -25,000 BTC, while long-term holder outflows fell to 276,000 BTC from 904,000 BTC in November. Analysts still see potential resistance forming around $79,000 and possibly near $90,000, with broader sentiment gauges remaining cautious.

On Feb. 28, Bitcoin perpetual funding rates fell to around -6% while BTC-denominated open interest climbed from about 113,380 BTC to 120,260 BTC from the start of the year. This combination signaled heavily leveraged downside hedging ahead of the March 6 US jobs report, which showed a 92,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls and a 4.4% unemployment rate. Together, these moves highlighted how macro shocks feed into crypto through funding, open interest, and liquidations rather than headlines.

After surging to $73,000 on the back of US-Iran tensions, Bitcoin slipped into a corrective phase and was trading near $67,174 with support around $65,000. Analysts warn that losing the $63,700 on-chain level could open the way to $57,000 and $52,400, even as long-term holders show little distribution and sentiment sits in Extreme Fear.