Technical Analysis

Japan's Lower House approved a crypto tax proposal to cut the top rate on digital-asset gains from about 55% to a flat 20% and to treat crypto as a financial instrument, with tax changes targeted for 2028 and possible ETF approvals as early as 2027. XRP traded around $1.14 after repeated tests of the $1.15 resistance zone, while traders watched $1.10 support and a potential move toward $1.20 if a daily close clears $1.15. Separately, SBI Holdings has applied to Japan's FSA for ETF products that include a spot Bitcoin-XRP structure and a hybrid Digital Gold-Crypto ETF, targeting up to $32 billion in AUM within three years.

XRP has been hovering around the $1.10 area even as daily futures volume has jumped back above $5 billion, a level last seen when price traded near $1.65. A TD Sequential buy setup on the 3-day chart and support around $1.09–$1.10 are being watched for a possible rebound toward $1.20 and $1.30, while a breakdown below $1.10 could bring another leg lower.

JPMorgan says the macro "debasement trade" that previously pushed billions into Bitcoin and gold is unwinding, with the retreat accelerating for BTC. Bitcoin is trading above $63,000 after falling from an October peak above $126,000, while gold ETFs shed $20 billion in the week through June 5 and US spot bitcoin ETFs logged $2.1 billion of outflows in June. A Sygnum CIO argued the flows may reflect cash-and-carry arbitrage being closed rather than broad capitulation.

On June 12, 2026, Bank of America's head of US equity and quantitative strategy Savita Subramanian said market conditions are showing "too many red flags" that have often come before major S&P 500 peaks. She noted that 70% of the firm's bear-market "signposts" are currently triggered and said such setups have historically foreshadowed a roughly 20% correction. Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson, however, argued a correction could be inevitable yet healthy if the bull market is to extend into year-end.

Bitcoin climbed from $61,100 to above $63,400 on June 11, a roughly 3% move tied to risk-on sentiment after President Trump said the U.S. stepped back from planned Iran strikes and a peace memo could be signed as early as this weekend. The rally came while spot Bitcoin ETFs logged 13 straight sessions of outflows totaling $4.4 billion, with markets also focused on the Federal Reserve's June 16–17 meeting and a 98% probability of a rate hold.

Bitcoin returned to gains on Friday, trading at $63,550, up 1.6% on the day and 1.4% over the week. The rebound followed Donald Trump's comments that the U.S. was close to a deal with Iran and that he had "ended the war with Iran today." Major tokens moved higher alongside BTC, while traders watched for whether a formal agreement in Europe this weekend materializes.

Major cryptocurrencies rose on Thursday as markets reacted after President Donald Trump called off "scheduled" strikes on Iran and said talks on a deal were approved by Iran's top leadership. Bitcoin climbed to an intraday high of $63,850, while data showed more than $260 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours and the total crypto market cap at $2.17 trillion.

On June 12, Dogecoin hovered near $0.085 after a sharp drop that broke a February uptrend line, while buyers defended the $0.08 area and the $0.10 zone turned into key resistance. Shiba Inu remained weak below major technical levels as traders watched whether current support can hold. Toncoin steadied after sliding from May highs into the $1.50–$1.55 range, and Ethereum showed early signs of consolidation as bearish momentum appeared to ease.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains intact, saying the current midterm-year drawdown closely matches past patterns. On-chain observers highlight BTC trading near the 200-week MA Quantile, while CryptoQuant warns price could revisit the realized price around $53.5K as demand weakened sharply. BTC was around $63K at the time of writing after retesting its February low last week.

Crypto trading activity across major non-stablecoin assets has slipped to levels last seen in 2024, according to Santiment's June 11 post on X. CoinGecko data shows Bitcoin's 24-hour volume at about $30 billion, down almost 20% day over day, while Ethereum fell 1.40% and BNB dropped 10%. Santiment said the pullback in participation can sometimes precede a relief rally if confidence and inflows return.