Bitwise Projects $1.6 Million Bitcoin Price by 2036

Bitwise expects Bitcoin to reach $1.6 million by 2036, about 19 times the $83,557 starting price in its model. Its base case assigns Bitcoin 25% of the store-of-value market it shares with gold. That segment contributes about $27.5 trillion, roughly 82% of the projected $33.6 trillion total. The store-of-value assumption drives the forecast more than any other input. The model uses a total addressable market approach. Bitwise sizes markets, estimates Bitcoin penetration and divides the resulting value by the full supply of 21 million coins. It expects the combined gold and Bitcoin market to expand from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036. At the starting price, the circulating supply of 20.1 million coins is worth about $1.7 trillion, roughly 5% of today's $31.1 trillion market. The six remaining categories, including institutional portfolios and national treasury reserves, contribute about $6 trillion altogether. Bitwise highlights a strengthening correlation between Bitcoin and gold. The 90-day correlation hit a record 0.58 on Sept. 11. Bitwise expects the relationship to continue and strengthen as more people recognize Bitcoin's store-of-value characteristics. The model uses a gold correlation of 0.21 for the next decade, compared with a 10-year average of 0.11. In the bear case, Bitcoin captures 2.5% of the store-of-value market and receives no value from other market categories. Those assumptions produce a 2036 price of $130,686, equal to a 4.6% annual return. Bitcoin trades at $79,902 after falling 1.12% over the past day. The base case implies a 34.3% annual return. JPMorgan's 2036 Bitcoin scenarios put the base-case annual return at 10%, substantially below Bitwise's projection. Jim Cramer said this month that gold remains his preferred portfolio insurance over Bitcoin. Bitwise identifies quantum computing, mathematical advances driven by artificial intelligence and a reversal in regulation as major risks. The largest variation in the model comes from how much of gold's role Bitcoin captures by 2036.